Match report →
Racing Club – Gimnasia La Plata2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Racing Club
1.09
Total xG
1.86
Gimnasia La Plata
0.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Club | Gimnasia La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Adrián Martínez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Rojas not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marco Di Césare not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adrián Fernández not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Nicolás Barros Schelotto not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alexis Steimbach not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Enzo Martínez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical edge: The model calculates a home win probability of 41% and 1.09 expected goals for Racing Club
- Historical dominance: Gimnasia La Plata won the last two head-to-head matches
- Struggling offenses: Both teams are currently scoring fewer goals on average (1.0) compared to their season averages
Risks
- Home squad weakened: Without Adrián Martínez, Gabriel Rojas, Marco Di Césare, and Adrián Fernández, only 69% of the usual goal threat is available
- Away squad weakened: Without Nicolás Barros Schelotto, Alexis Steimbach, and Enzo Martínez, only 64% of the usual goal threat is available
- Low-scoring venue history: Past matches at this venue produced an average of only 1.6 goals
All probabilities
Result
Racing Club41%
Draw35%
Gimnasia La Plata24%
Double chance
Racing Club or draw76%
Gimnasia La Plata or draw59%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:0
15%
1:1
15%
0:1
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club with Franco Pardo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata with Mateo Seoane: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Racing Club: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Gimnasia La Plata: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Racing Club 4-3-1-2 · Gimnasia La Plata 4-3-1-2
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 23 N. Colombo
- 43 G. Escudero
- 18 L. Espino García
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 13 S. Sosa
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 46 A. Tello
- 17 T. Conechny
- 28 S. Solari
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 14 G. Errecalde
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 5 J. Miramon
- 18 M. Seoane
- 20 J. Pérez Suaza
- 8 I. Fernández
- 32 L. Torres
- 29 A. Auzmendi
Substitutes
- 58 T. Pérez
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 20 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 6 F. Rojo
- 22 E. Torres
- 15 G. Martirena
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 32 L. Díaz
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 38 M. Martínez
- 42 S. Villarreal
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 16 A. Max
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 11 J. Merlo
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 15 A. Gelsomino
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 37 J. Langa
- 43 M. Ojeda
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