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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Racing Club - Gimnasia La Plata

07/24/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Racing Club
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Gimnasia La Plata
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:0

15%

1:1

15%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
RCGLP

Racing Club

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.06
AdriĂĄn MartĂ­nez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Gabriel Rojas not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Marco Di CĂ©sare not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
AdriĂĄn FernĂĄndez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

Gimnasia La Plata

4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Alexis Steimbach not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Enzo MartĂ­nez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 64% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Racing Club with Franco Pardo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Gimnasia La Plata with Mateo Seoane: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Gimnasia La Plata: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    Racing Club: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Gimnasia La Plata: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

35%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical edge: The model calculates a home win probability of 41% and 1.09 expected goals for Racing Club
  • Historical dominance: Gimnasia La Plata won the last two head-to-head matches
  • Struggling offenses: Both teams are currently scoring fewer goals on average (1.0) compared to their season averages
Risk Factors
  • Home squad weakened: Without AdriĂĄn MartĂ­nez, Gabriel Rojas, Marco Di CĂ©sare, and AdriĂĄn FernĂĄndez, only 69% of the usual goal threat is available
  • Away squad weakened: Without NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto, Alexis Steimbach, and Enzo MartĂ­nez, only 64% of the usual goal threat is available
  • Low-scoring venue history: Past matches at this venue produced an average of only 1.6 goals
Overview

Racing Club (8th place, 21 points) host Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 24, 2026, 10:00 PM

The home side looks to close the gap in the standings

Form

Racing Club shows form DDDWL with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches

Gimnasia La Plata has form WWWWL with 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss

Both teams suffered a defeat in their last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Racing Club scored an average of 1.06 goals and conceded 0.94 goals per game this season

At home, Racing averages 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded goals

Gimnasia La Plata scored an average of 1.11 goals and conceded 1.17 goals

In away matches, Gimnasia concedes an average of 1.38 goals while scoring 1.12

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches so far

Gimnasia La Plata won both encounters with a total score of 3-1

The last duel on January 24, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Gimnasia La Plata

Key Players

Santiago Solari scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists in 17 appearances

TomĂĄs Conechny has 3 goals and 2 assists in 18 matches this season

MatĂ­as Zaracho scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Marcelo Torres has already scored 8 goals in 18 matches this season

Nacho FernĂĄndez contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in 16 matches

AgustĂ­n Auzmendi provided 2 assists in the last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Facundo Cambeses achieved an average rating of 6.99 this season and kept 7 clean sheets

Nelson InsfrĂĄn has an average rating of 6.94 and kept 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on the grass pitch of the Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo PerĂłn

The home average for Racing Club stands at 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match

Past matches at this stadium averaged 1.6 goals

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