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Newell's Old Boys – Talleres Córdoba1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Newell's Old Boys
0.90
Total xG
2.02
Talleres Córdoba
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newell's Old Boys | Talleres Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.61 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1 season average) | +0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Oscar Salomón not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Alexandro Maidana not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Augusto Schott on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Rick on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matías Catalán not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 68% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Newell's Old Boys are currently scoring more frequently (2.0) compared to their season average (1.0) according to advancedStats
- Only 51% of Talleres Córdoba's typical starting XI strength is available as Alexandro Maidana, Augusto Schott, Rick, and Matías Catalán are missing
- Talleres Córdoba are favored with a calculated probability of 73% for a draw or away win (X2)
Risks
- Oscar Salomón (2 season goals) is missing from the defense of Newell's Old Boys due to injury
- The venue history suggests a low-scoring game, with an average of only 1.4 goals per match and a 0% Over 2.5 rate
All probabilities
Result
Newell's Old Boys27%
Draw34%
Talleres Córdoba39%
Double chance
Newell's Old Boys or draw61%
Talleres Córdoba or draw73%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newell's Old Boys: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Talleres Córdoba with Diego Valoyes: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Newell's Old Boys: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
- Newell's Old Boys: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1 · Talleres Córdoba 3-4-2-1
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 23 N. Goitea
- 28 J. Russo
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 33 W. Núñez
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 44 S. Fernández
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 5 M. Galarza
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 10 G. Baroni
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Substitutes
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 2 I. Glavinovich
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 29 M. Esponda
- 3 M. Luciano
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 24 F. Escobar
- 15 A. Soñora
- 35 B. Benedetto
- 49 V. Dávila
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 11 V. Depietri
- 20 A. Schott
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 28 A. Vigo
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
- 35 G. Nuccio
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