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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Atlético Tucumán - Independiente Rivadavia

07/26/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético Tucumán
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Independiente Rivadavia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

11%

1:0

11%

1:2

7%
What influences the xG?
ATIR

Atlético Tucumán

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.10
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Independiente Rivadavia

Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.19
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.04
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
Gonzalo Ríos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Alejo Osella on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Rodrigo Atencio on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Independiente Rivadavia with Matías Fernández: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Tucumán with Lautaro Godoy: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Independiente Rivadavia: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

34%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance of the visitors: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.4 shots on target with 58% possession in recent matches, compared to Tucumán's average of 3.0 shots
  • Table situation: League leaders Independiente Rivadavia (34 points) travel as clear favorites to face 13th-placed Atlético Tucumán (14 points)
  • Offensive trend: The visitors are currently scoring more frequently (2.5) than their season average (1.9), while the hosts' goal production has slowed to an average of 0.8
Risk Factors
  • Low offensive output from the hosts: Atlético Tucumán recently averaged just 3.0 shots on target per match with a sluggish goal production of 0.8
  • Loss of creativity for the visitors: Due to the absence of key players, only 57% of their regular assist capacity is available in the squad
  • High outcome uncertainty: The mathematical analysis predicts an extremely tight match with almost identical probabilities of around 33% each for a home win, draw, and away win
Overview

Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 14 points) host Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 34 points) at the Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Liga Profesional de Fútbol on July 26, 2026, 6:00 PM

A classic matchup between the league leaders and the underdogs

Form

Form Atlético Tucumán: LDLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recent results show 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Form Independiente Rivadavia: WDWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recent results show 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Atlético Tucumán scores an average of 0.94 goals per game and concedes 1.25

In home games, the hosts average 0.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded

Independiente Rivadavia scores an average of 1.76 goals per game and concedes 1.00

In away games, the visitors average 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded

Head-to-Head

A total of 2 head-to-head matches in the records

Each team has won exactly 1 match

The last encounter on January 24, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Independiente Rivadavia

Key Players

Leandro Díaz with 5 season goals and 1 assist

Renzo Tesuri with 2 season goals and 1 assist

Franco Nicola with 2 season goals and 1 assist

Fabrizio Sartori with 7 season goals and 0 assists

Leonel Bucca with 4 season goals and 0 assists

José Florentín with 3 season goals and 0 assists

Not nominated: Gonzalo Ríos (1 goal, 3 assists), Alejo Osella (4 goals, 0 assists), Rodrigo Atencio (0 goals, 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Luis Ingolotti played 16 league matches and kept 5 clean sheets

Nicolás Bolcato made 16 appearances and achieved 4 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Historical venue stats show an average of 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches at this stadium

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