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Atlético Tucumán – Independiente Rivadavia0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Tucumán
1.03
Total xG
2.07
Independiente Rivadavia
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Tucumán | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Gonzalo Ríos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alejo Osella on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Atencio on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance of the visitors: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.4 shots on target with 58% possession in recent matches, compared to Tucumán's average of 3.0 shots
- Table situation: League leaders Independiente Rivadavia (34 points) travel as clear favorites to face 13th-placed Atlético Tucumán (14 points)
- Offensive trend: The visitors are currently scoring more frequently (2.5) than their season average (1.9), while the hosts' goal production has slowed to an average of 0.8
Risks
- Low offensive output from the hosts: Atlético Tucumán recently averaged just 3.0 shots on target per match with a sluggish goal production of 0.8
- Loss of creativity for the visitors: Due to the absence of key players, only 57% of their regular assist capacity is available in the squad
- High outcome uncertainty: The mathematical analysis predicts an extremely tight match with almost identical probabilities of around 33% each for a home win, draw, and away win
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Tucumán33%
Draw34%
Independiente Rivadavia34%
Double chance
Atlético Tucumán or draw66%
Independiente Rivadavia or draw67%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
11%
1:0
11%
1:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente Rivadavia with Matías Fernández: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético Tucumán with Lautaro Godoy: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Independiente Rivadavia: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 16)
Lineups
Atlético Tucumán 4-3-3 · Independiente Rivadavia 5-3-2
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 2 L. Paunero
- 31 L. Godoy
- 19 L. Vega
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 9 L. Díaz
- 23 N. Laméndola
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 14 L. Gómez
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 42 S. Studer
- 3 J. Elordi
- 8 L. Bucca
- 10 M. Fernández
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
Substitutes
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 45 K. Ortíz
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 4 T. Jung
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 13 A. Osella
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 20 A. Riep
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 11 G. Ríos
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 5 T. Bottari
- 45 L. Sábato
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