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Defensa y Justicia – Deportivo Riestra2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Defensa y Justicia
1.00
Total xG
1.75
Deportivo Riestra
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Defensa y Justicia | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.23 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.7 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Aarón Molinas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ayrton Portillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 51% available) |
Key factors
- Critical absences: Only 52% of the goal threat is available with Aarón Molinas and Ayrton Portillo missing
- Tactical contrast: Defensa y Justicia recently controlled games with an average of 57% possession, while Deportivo Riestra plays on the counter with an average of 32% possession
- Form trend: Deportivo Riestra is currently scoring more frequently with 1.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 0.7
Risks
- Away weakness: Deportivo Riestra concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away match this season
- Short rest period: Deportivo Riestra has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Attacking slump: Defensa y Justicia's goal production has stalled recently with just 0.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Defensa y Justicia38%
Draw37%
Deportivo Riestra25%
Double chance
Defensa y Justicia or draw75%
Deportivo Riestra or draw62%
No draw63%
Goals
Over 1.554%
Under 1.546%
Over 2.526%
Under 2.574%
Over 3.510%
Under 3.590%
Both teams score
Yes35%
No65%
Most likely scores
0:0
19%
1:0
16%
1:1
15%
0:1
11%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo Riestra with Matias Garcia: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Defensa y Justicia with Darío Cáceres: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Deportivo Riestra: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1 · Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 33 L. Souto
- 29 D. Fernández
- 2 E. Lucero
- 40 M. Rodríguez
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 17 A. Hausch
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 24 F. Miño
- 22 C. Paz
- 2 C. Quintana
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 8 M. Céliz
- 14 P. Monje
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 11 A. Díaz
Substitutes
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 36 L. Amade
- 23 M. Aguiar
- 16 A. Portillo
- 25 F. Altamira
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 27 D. Blanco
- 41 R. Gagliardi
- 44 Máximo Jonás Cabrera
- 45 T. Martínez
- 21 T. González
- 16 N. Watson
- 32 G. Flores
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 27 J. Goitía
- 13 R. Gallo
- 9 G. Benegas
- 3 E. Tovo
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 20 T. Lauro
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
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