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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Defensa y Justicia - Deportivo Riestra

07/29/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Defensa y Justicia
1.0
Total xG
1.7
Deportivo Riestra
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

1:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

11%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
DYJDR

Defensa y Justicia

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.38
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.17
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
AarĂłn Molinas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Ayrton Portillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 51% available)

Deportivo Riestra

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.23
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.7 season average)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.12
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.10

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo Riestra with Matias Garcia: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Defensa y Justicia with DarĂ­o CĂĄceres: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Deportivo Riestra: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

37%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • Critical absences: Only 52% of the goal threat is available with AarĂłn Molinas and Ayrton Portillo missing
  • Tactical contrast: Defensa y Justicia recently controlled games with an average of 57% possession, while Deportivo Riestra plays on the counter with an average of 32% possession
  • Form trend: Deportivo Riestra is currently scoring more frequently with 1.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 0.7
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Deportivo Riestra concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away match this season
  • Short rest period: Deportivo Riestra has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Attacking slump: Defensa y Justicia's goal production has stalled recently with just 0.8 goals per game
Overview

Defensa y Justicia (10th place, 19 points) host Deportivo Riestra (15th place, 11 points)

Match on July 29, 2026, 5:00 PM at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Defensa y Justicia enters as slight favorites with a 38% win probability according to the mathematical model

Form

Defensa y Justicia has a form of LLLLD with 0 wins and 4 losses in the last 5 matches

Deportivo Riestra shows a positive trend with LLWDW, recording 2 wins and one draw

The visitors recently celebrated a clear 3-0 victory against Boca Juniors

Statistics

Defensa y Justicia averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season

Deportivo Riestra scores an average of only 0.47 goals but concedes just 0.71 goals

The visitors have already kept 7 clean sheets this season

In home matches, Defensa y Justicia concedes an average of 1.57 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Defensa y Justicia won 2 games and 2 ended in a draw

The goal difference is 4:2 in favor of the home team

The last direct duel ended in a 1-0 win for Defensa y Justicia on January 29, 2026

Key Players

Juan Gutiérrez with 3 goals and 3 assists, alongside David Barbona with 2 goals this season, shape the offense

Additionally, midfielder AgustĂ­n Hausch is in the starting lineup

For the visitors, Antony Alonso with 3 goals and Alexander DĂ­az with one goal this season are available

They are supported by midfielder Brian SĂĄnchez, who has scored one goal

Goalkeepers

MatĂ­as Borgogno is in goal for the home team, having played one season match so far

Ignacio Arce guarded the visitors' goal in 17 matches and shows a rising form trend

The away goalkeeper has already completed 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

At the Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, the goal average this season is 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of Defensa y Justicia's home games so far

The match will be played on a natural grass surface

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