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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

San Lorenzo - Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

07/28/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
San Lorenzo
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SLGYEM

San Lorenzo

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.03
Full strength squad available

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.49
Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.08
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
AgustĂ­n MĂłdica on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
56% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 0.9 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Lorenzo with Gregorio RodrĂ­guez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Ismael Cortez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

30%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Offensive home advantage: San Lorenzo averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Significant absence: The visitors are missing AgustĂ­n MĂłdica (5 goals), weakening their attacking threat
  • Favorable projection: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 50% probability
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: San Lorenzo has had only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Away weakness: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes an average of 2.33 goals in away matches
Overview

San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points) host Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (11th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 28, 2026, 10:00 PM

San Lorenzo enters as favorites at the Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Form

San Lorenzo with mixed form: DWLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recently suffered a 0-1 defeat against LanĂșs

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza shows a stronger trend: DWLWW

The visitors travel with two consecutive wins

Statistics

San Lorenzo scores 0.89 goals and concedes 0.94 on average this season

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game

The visitors struggle defensively on the road with an average of 2.33 goals conceded

San Lorenzo kept a clean sheet in 9 of their 18 matches

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match recorded

San Lorenzo won the last meeting 1-0 away on January 27, 2026

The record shows one win for San Lorenzo

Key Players

Alexis Cuello with 4 goals and 3 assists in 17 season appearances

Rodrigo Auzmendi scored 4 goals in 9 appearances so far

Facundo Gulli contributed 3 assists this season

Not nominated for the visitors: AgustĂ­n MĂłdica (5 goals)

Goalkeepers

Orlando Gill started in 16 matches for San Lorenzo

He kept 4 clean sheets at home this season

Cesar Rigamonti played 15 matches for the visitors

Rigamonti kept 2 clean sheets in away matches so far

Influences

Estadio Pedro Bidegain averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 home matches

San Lorenzo scored 10 goals and conceded 11 at home

The visitors scored only 5 goals in 6 away matches

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