Match report →
San Lorenzo – Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
San Lorenzo
1.43
Total xG
2.25
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Lorenzo | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.49 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Agustín Módica on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 56% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive home advantage: San Lorenzo averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Significant absence: The visitors are missing Agustín Módica (5 goals), weakening their attacking threat
- Favorable projection: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 50% probability
Risks
- Fatigue factor: San Lorenzo has had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Away weakness: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes an average of 2.33 goals in away matches
All probabilities
Result
San Lorenzo50%
Draw30%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza20%
Double chance
San Lorenzo or draw80%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw50%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Lorenzo with Gregorio Rodríguez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Ismael Cortez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
San Lorenzo 4-4-2 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-3-3
San Lorenzo
- 12 O. Gill
- 32 E. Herrera
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 62 G. Alassia
- 10 F. Gulli
- 29 R. Auzmendi
- 9 A. Cuello
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 30 E. Fernández
- 21 F. Antonini
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 9 A. Módica
- 19 J. Ceballos
Substitutes
- 19 F. Bruera
- 17 G. Rodríguez
- 5 I. Perruzzi Ambrosini
- 15 M. Cardillo
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 44 M. Hernández
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 28 C. Barrios
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 54 N. Blanco
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 32 L. Paredes
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 27 B. Armoa Núñez
- 10 N. Romano Di Marco
- 5 N. Barboza
- 42 L. Carrera
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 16 G. Guiffrey
- 41 G. Patritti
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →