🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Unión Santa Fe - Lanús

08/06/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Unión Santa Fe
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Lanús
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
USFLAN

Unión Santa Fe

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.76
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.36
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.33
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Rafael Profini not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Marcelo Estigarribia on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Mateo Del Blanco not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Brahian David Cuello on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Lanús

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.30
Declining form (0.3 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.26
Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
20% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Unión Santa Fe with Marcelo Estigarribia: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Lanús: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Squad depletion: Unión Santa Fe is missing four key players, leaving them with only 71% of their regular lineup strength
  • Home defensive wall: Unión Santa Fe concedes only 0.62 goals per game on average when playing at home
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model indicates a 54% probability of a home victory
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Lanús enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last outing
  • Struggling attacks: Unión Santa Fe's recent goals average dropped to 1.0, while Lanús managed only 0.33 goals per game recently
  • Possession control: Lanús averaged 60% possession in recent matches and could dictate the tempo
Overview

Unión Santa Fe host Lanús at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 6, 2026, 10:00 PM

Unión Santa Fe sit in 8th place with 21 points

Lanús occupy 6th place with 24 points

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

Unión Santa Fe's form is DWLDL

Lanús enter with form DDLWL

Both teams recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Unión Santa Fe lost their last match 0-2 against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Lanús lost their last match 0-1 against Instituto

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Unión Santa Fe average 1.4 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded per match

At home, Unión Santa Fe concede only 0.62 goals per game on average

Lanús average 1.0 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded per match

Unión Santa Fe kept 5 clean sheets in their home matches

Lanús kept 2 clean sheets in their away games

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches

The away team won 1 match, with 1 ending in a draw

The goal record stands at 2-3 in favor of Unión Santa Fe

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 away victory for Unión Santa Fe on January 29, 2026

Key Players

Cristian Tarragona has scored 9 goals this season with an average rating of 7.08

Julián Palacios contributed 3 goals and 7 assists in 19 appearances

Juan Pablo Ludueña stabilizes the defense and scored 1 goal

Carlos Izquierdoz leads Lanús with a strong average rating of 7.13

Ramiro Carrera has scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists from midfield

Nahuel Losada excels in goal with an average rating of 7.07

Goalkeepers

Matías Mansilla played 20 matches for Unión Santa Fe, keeping 5 clean sheets

Nahuel Losada has made 17 appearances for Lanús, contributing to 8 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place at Estadio 15 de Abril on grass

Unión Santa Fe benefit from a strong home record, conceding only 0.62 goals per home match

Venue stats show an average of 2.2 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.