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Unión Santa Fe – Lanús2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
1.57
Total xG
2.37
Lanús
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.76 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Rafael Profini not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Marcelo Estigarribia on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mateo Del Blanco not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brahian David Cuello on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad depletion: Unión Santa Fe is missing four key players, leaving them with only 71% of their regular lineup strength
- Home defensive wall: Unión Santa Fe concedes only 0.62 goals per game on average when playing at home
- Model prediction: The mathematical model indicates a 54% probability of a home victory
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Lanús enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last outing
- Struggling attacks: Unión Santa Fe's recent goals average dropped to 1.0, while Lanús managed only 0.33 goals per game recently
- Possession control: Lanús averaged 60% possession in recent matches and could dictate the tempo
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe54%
Draw28%
Lanús17%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw83%
Lanús or draw46%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Unión Santa Fe with Marcelo Estigarribia: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Lanús: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-1-3-2 · Lanús 4-2-3-1
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 35 L. Vargas
- 2 ?. Rodríguez González
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 5 L. Menossi
- 20 J. Palacios
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 25 C. Tarragona
- 31 M. Aguirre
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 6 S. Marcich
- 17 D. Medina
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 23 R. Carrera
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
Substitutes
- 22 B. Cuello
- 46 S. Grella
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 12 B. Pittón
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 29 S. Vera
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 36 M. Aimar
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 27 F. Sánchez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 11 E. Salvio
- 9 W. Bou
- 33 T. Guidara
- 8 F. Watson
- 25 D. Aquino
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 2 L. Romero
- 38 B. Acosta
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
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