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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Talleres Córdoba - Vélez Sarsfield

07/30/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Talleres Córdoba
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Vélez Sarsfield
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
TCVS

Talleres Córdoba

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.27
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.11
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Alexandro Maidana not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Matías Catalán not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Vélez Sarsfield

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
-0.06
Florián Monzón on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Diego Valdés on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Tobías Andrada not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Talleres Córdoba with Alexandro Maidana: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vélez Sarsfield with Claudio Baeza: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Talleres Córdoba: 8 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 5
    Vélez Sarsfield: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

35%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact for Vélez: Top scorers Florián Monzón (6 goals) and Diego Valdés (5 assists) are missing from the starting lineup
  • Declining attack: Talleres' goal production has stalled recently, averaging 0.8 goals compared to its season average of 1.1
  • Solid defensive lines: Talleres concede just 0.6 goals on average at home, while Vélez allow only 0.67 goals on the road
Risk Factors
  • Talleres are missing key players such as Alexandro Maidana (2 goals, 1 assist) and Matías Catalán (2 assists)
  • Talleres averaged just 3.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Talleres Córdoba (4th place, 26 points) host Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 28 points) at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Liga Profesional de Fútbol on July 30, 2026, 10:00 PM

A crucial top-tier matchup with only two points separating the sides

Form

Talleres Córdoba enter the match with a form of WDDLL

The home side recently suffered two consecutive defeats

Vélez Sarsfield show a recent form of DDDLW

Vélez won their last match 1-0 against Instituto

Statistics

Talleres average 0.94 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per game

At home, Talleres' defense is solid, conceding only 0.6 goals per match

Vélez Sarsfield concede an average of just 0.67 goals in away matches

The visitors have kept 8 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct encounters in the database

Vélez Sarsfield won 3 of these matches, while Talleres Córdoba won 1

The last meeting on January 27, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Vélez Sarsfield

Key Players

Ronaldo Martínez (Attacker) scored 3 goals and made 1 assist in 18 appearances

Augusto Schott (Defender) contributed 3 goals in 17 matches with a 6.88 rating

Manuel Lanzini (Midfielder) leads the visitors with 4 goals in 18 matches and a 7.20 rating

Goalkeepers

Ezequiel Unsain guards the net for Talleres Córdoba with a 6.59 rating

Tomás Marchiori features in goal for Vélez Sarsfield with a strong 7.29 rating

Vélez has recorded 8 clean sheets, compared to 6 for Talleres

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

Estadio Juan Domingo Perón has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

60% of those matches produced over 2.5 goals

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