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Talleres Córdoba – Vélez Sarsfield1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.03
Total xG
1.92
Vélez Sarsfield
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.06 | |
| Alexandro Maidana not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matías Catalán not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Florián Monzón on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Diego Valdés on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Tobías Andrada not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 72% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad impact for Vélez: Top scorers Florián Monzón (6 goals) and Diego Valdés (5 assists) are missing from the starting lineup
- Declining attack: Talleres' goal production has stalled recently, averaging 0.8 goals compared to its season average of 1.1
- Solid defensive lines: Talleres concede just 0.6 goals on average at home, while Vélez allow only 0.67 goals on the road
Risks
- Talleres are missing key players such as Alexandro Maidana (2 goals, 1 assist) and Matías Catalán (2 assists)
- Talleres averaged just 3.8 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba36%
Draw35%
Vélez Sarsfield29%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw71%
Vélez Sarsfield or draw64%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Talleres Córdoba with Alexandro Maidana: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield with Claudio Baeza: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: 8 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 3-4-2-1 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-3-2-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 44 S. Fernández
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 5 M. Galarza
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 15 D. Godoy
Substitutes
- 49 V. Dávila
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 11 V. Depietri
- 10 G. Baroni
- 99 B. Barticciotto
- 28 A. Vigo
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
- 35 G. Nuccio
- 8 L. Robertone
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 34 ?. Busso
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 2 E. Mammana
- 9 F. Monzón
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 37 J. Policella
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