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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Barracas Central - Aldosivi

07/29/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Barracas Central
1.2
Total xG
1.9
Aldosivi
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

2:0

11%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BCALD

Barracas Central

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Fernando Tobio on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Aldosivi

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.66
Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.33
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average)
+0.08
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aldosivi with Franco Leys: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Barracas Central with Kevin Jappert: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Aldosivi: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 6 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

33%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Form disparity: Barracas Central secured two wins in their last five matches, while Aldosivi remains winless this season
  • Away defensive struggles: Aldosivi confesses an average of 1.5 goals on the road and has kept zero away clean sheets
  • Defensive absentee: Fernando Tobio is missing from the lineup, leaving Barracas with only 86% of their usual startup strength
Risk Factors
  • Attacking injuries: Barracas Central must cope without the sidelined D. MartĂ­nez and J. Morales
  • Passive tactical setups: Both teams played a counter-heavy style recently, averaging just 36% and 31.2% possession
  • Weak away offense: Aldosivi scores an average of only 0.4 goals per away match
Overview

Barracas Central hosts Aldosivi at the Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 29, 2026, 5:30 PM

Barracas is 9th with 21 points while Aldosivi is 14th with 8 points

The mathematical model estimates a 47% probability of a home win

Form

Barracas Central is in WDDLW form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Aldosivi shows LDLDD form with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Barracas recently beat River Plate 1-0

Aldosivi comes off a 1-1 draw against Defensa y Justicia

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Barracas averages 0.94 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game

Aldosivi averages a low 0.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded

Away from home, Aldosivi concedes an average of 1.5 goals and kept no clean sheets

Head-to-Head

Barracas Central won 2 of the 3 head-to-head matches with 1 draw

Aldosivi has never defeated Barracas Central in direct duels

The last meeting on January 28, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

Key Players

Rodrigo InsĂșa has registered 3 goals and 1 assist this season

TomĂĄs Porra has provided 3 assists with a rising form trend

NicolĂĄs Demartini has scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Marcelo Miño is in goal for Barracas Central with an average rating of 7.42

Ignacio Chicco protects the goal for Aldosivi

Barracas has 5 clean sheets this season compared to 4 for Aldosivi

Influences

The match is played on a natural grass surface

Barracas Central averages 0.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded at home

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