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Barracas Central – Aldosivi1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Barracas Central
1.22
Total xG
1.90
Aldosivi
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Barracas Central | Aldosivi |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.66 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.33 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Fernando Tobio on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form disparity: Barracas Central secured two wins in their last five matches, while Aldosivi remains winless this season
- Away defensive struggles: Aldosivi confesses an average of 1.5 goals on the road and has kept zero away clean sheets
- Defensive absentee: Fernando Tobio is missing from the lineup, leaving Barracas with only 86% of their usual startup strength
Risks
- Attacking injuries: Barracas Central must cope without the sidelined D. Martínez and J. Morales
- Passive tactical setups: Both teams played a counter-heavy style recently, averaging just 36% and 31.2% possession
- Weak away offense: Aldosivi scores an average of only 0.4 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Barracas Central47%
Draw33%
Aldosivi19%
Double chance
Barracas Central or draw81%
Aldosivi or draw53%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:0
17%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi with Franco Leys: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- Barracas Central with Kevin Jappert: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Aldosivi: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 6 games with xG data)
Lineups
Barracas Central 5-3-2 · Aldosivi 3-4-3
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 13 R. Barrios
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 6 R. Insúa
- 8 T. Porra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
Aldosivi
- 23 I. Chicco
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 32 J. Pombo
- 14 E. López
- 5 N. Linares
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 16 B. Dadín
- 9 N. Cordero
- 27 T. Fernández
Substitutes
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 37 G. Campi
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 33 G. Maroni
- 24 E. Taborda
- 79 M. Puig
- 25 Y. Gordillo Vargas
- 32 O. Tobio
- 2 N. Capraro
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 7 J. Barbieri
- 29 A. Vombergar
- 42 L. Acosta
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 22 A. Sosa
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 4 R. González
- 28 S. Moya
- 24 F. Anso
- 21 M. Godoy
- 2 L. Sigali
- 18 A. Chávez
- 38 Mateo Sebastián Vales
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