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Gimnasia La Plata – River Plate1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia La Plata
0.92
Total xG
2.74
River Plate
1.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia La Plata | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.63x league average) | +1.67 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.74 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Marcelo Torres not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Barros Schelotto on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Facundo Colidio on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sebastián Driussi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Aníbal Moreno not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 62% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: River Plate averaged 64.4% possession and 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Favorites role: The mathematical model calculates a 57% win probability for River Plate
- Historical dominance: River Plate won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a clear 8:2 goal difference
Risks
- Marcelo Torres and Nicolás Barros Schelotto are missing for Gimnasia, leaving only 61% of their goal threat available
- Facundo Colidio, Sebastián Driussi and Aníbal Moreno are missing for River Plate, leaving only 63% of their goal threat available
- Gimnasia La Plata's goal production is stalling recently, averaging only 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.2
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia La Plata17%
Draw26%
River Plate57%
Double chance
Gimnasia La Plata or draw43%
River Plate or draw83%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: 80% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Gimnasia La Plata with Franco Torres: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- River Plate: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- River Plate with Juan Cruz Meza: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Gimnasia La Plata 4-5-1 · River Plate 4-2-3-1
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 5 J. Miramon
- 18 M. Seoane
- 8 I. Fernández
- 11 J. Merlo
- 29 A. Auzmendi
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 44 L.Silva
- 35 J. Freitas
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 26 T. Galván
- 18 L. Beltrán
Substitutes
- 17 L. Janson
- 42 S. Villarreal
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 16 A. Max
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 37 J. Langa
- 43 M. Ojeda
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 24 J. Meza
- 11 F. Colidio
- 36 U. Giménez
- 33 E. Centurión
- 15 F. Vera
- 31 F. González
- 20 G. González Apud
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