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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Gimnasia La Plata - River Plate

07/29/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
Total xG
2.7
River Plate
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
GLPRP

Gimnasia La Plata

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Marcelo Torres not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

River Plate

Attack strength (1.63x league average)
+1.67
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.74
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.02
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Facundo Colidio on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
SebastiĂĄn Driussi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
AnĂ­bal Moreno not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: 80% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Gimnasia La Plata with Franco Torres: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    River Plate: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    River Plate with Juan Cruz Meza: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

17%

Draw

26%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

83%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: River Plate averaged 64.4% possession and 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Favorites role: The mathematical model calculates a 57% win probability for River Plate
  • Historical dominance: River Plate won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a clear 8:2 goal difference
Risk Factors
  • Marcelo Torres and NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto are missing for Gimnasia, leaving only 61% of their goal threat available
  • Facundo Colidio, SebastiĂĄn Driussi and AnĂ­bal Moreno are missing for River Plate, leaving only 63% of their goal threat available
  • Gimnasia La Plata's goal production is stalling recently, averaging only 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.2
Overview

Gimnasia La Plata host River Plate at the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on July 29, 2026, 11:15 PM

Gimnasia (6th place, 26 points) challenge favorites River Plate (2nd place, 29 points)

River Plate aim to keep pressure on the league leaders with a victory

Form

Gimnasia La Plata form: WWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Gimnasia suffered 2 consecutive losses after 3 previous wins

River Plate form: DWWLL

The visitors also suffered 2 consecutive losses, with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5

Statistics

Gimnasia average 1.11 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per match

At home, Gimnasia average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded

River Plate average 1.38 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per match

On the road, River Plate concede only 0.67 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in historical records

River Plate lead with 3 wins to 1 win for Gimnasia, alongside 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 8:2 in favor of River Plate

The last match on May 14, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for River Plate

Key Players

AgustĂ­n Auzmendi shows rising form with 2 assists in the last 5 games

Nacho FernĂĄndez contributed 2 goals and 2 assists this season with a stable trend

Nelson InsfrĂĄn shined recently with an average rating of 7.31 in his last 5 games

Ángel Correa is in top form with 1 goal and 4 assists in his last 5 appearances

TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn impresses with 3 goals this season and a stable average rating of 7.09

Marcos Acuña recently raised his form to a strong rating of 7.29

Goalkeepers

Nelson InsfrĂĄn starts for Gimnasia, boasting 6 clean sheets this season

Santiago BeltrĂĄn guards the net for River Plate and has kept 9 clean sheets so far

Influences

Gimnasia benefit from home advantage at the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, with 11 home goals scored and 10 conceded

The stadium averages 2.8 total goals per match historically

The game will be played on natural grass

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