Match report →
Rosario Central – Racing Club0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Rosario Central
1.60
Total xG
2.71
Racing Club
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rosario Central | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.56x league average) | +0.71 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Enzo Copetti on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Tomás Conechny on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adrián Martínez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Rojas not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Matías Zaracho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marco Di Césare on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 63% of goal output missing (only 46% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Racing Club is missing five key players, leaving them with only 47% of their typical goal threat available
- Shooting efficiency: Rosario Central averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Racing Club's average of 2.6
- Home advantage predicted: The model calculates a 47% home win probability with 1.60 expected goals for Rosario Central
Risks
- Poor trend for Rosario Central after suffering two consecutive losses in the league
- An average of only 2.6 shots on target for Racing Club in recent matches indicates a limited offensive threat
- Limited data on duel statistics for recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Rosario Central47%
Draw28%
Racing Club25%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw75%
Racing Club or draw53%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club with Matko Miljevic: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Rosario Central with Alexis Soto: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Racing Club: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Rosario Central: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Racing Club 4-3-1-2
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 16 T. Badaloni
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 23 N. Colombo
- 6 F. Rojo
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 46 A. Tello
- 13 S. Sosa
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 28 S. Solari
- 32 L. Díaz
Substitutes
- 10 F. Cervi
- 1 A. Werner
- 28 G. Fernández
- 33 A. Soto
- 31 F. Navarro
- 39 F. Oviedo
- 22 E. Copetti
- 19 S. Segovia
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 7 M. Cabrera
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 18 L. Espino García
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 17 T. Conechny
- 43 G. Escudero
- 20 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 3 M. Di Cesare
- 22 E. Torres
- 15 G. Martirena
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 37 S. Aguirre
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