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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Rosario Central - Racing Club

07/29/2026, 12:15 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Rosario Central
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Racing Club
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RCRC

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.56x league average)
+0.71
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Enzo Copetti on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Racing Club

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Tomás Conechny on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Adrián Martínez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Gabriel Rojas not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Matías Zaracho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Marco Di Césare on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
63% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Racing Club with Matko Miljevic: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rosario Central with Alexis Soto: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Racing Club: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Rosario Central: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Racing Club is missing five key players, leaving them with only 47% of their typical goal threat available
  • Shooting efficiency: Rosario Central averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Racing Club's average of 2.6
  • Home advantage predicted: The model calculates a 47% home win probability with 1.60 expected goals for Rosario Central
Risk Factors
  • Poor trend for Rosario Central after suffering two consecutive losses in the league
  • An average of only 2.6 shots on target for Racing Club in recent matches indicates a limited offensive threat
  • Limited data on duel statistics for recent matches
Overview

Rosario Central (4th place, 28 points) hosts Racing Club (8th place, 21 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 29, 2026, 1:15 AM

The home team enters the match as favorites in the battle for top positions

Form

Rosario Central form is DWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Two consecutive losses recently for the hosts

Racing Club arrives with form DDWLW

Visitors with a win in their last match, following a defeat

Statistics

Rosario Central averages 1.30 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per match

Racing Club scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 0.95

The hosts are defensively strong at home, conceding only 0.75 goals per game

Racing Club concedes just 0.91 goals on average in away matches

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches recorded

Rosario Central won 2, Racing Club won 1, with 0 draws

The last match on May 13, 2026, ended 2:1 in favor of Rosario Central

Key Players

Ángel Di María has 5 goals, 4 assists, and an average rating of 7.42

Gastón Ávila contributed 2 goals and 2 assists this season

Tomás Badaloni scored twice in his last 5 matches

Santiago Solari is a key asset for the visitors with 2 goals and 4 assists

Santiago Sosa solidifies Racing Club's defense with a rating of 7.20

Matko Miljevic recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 15 season appearances

Goalkeepers

Conan Ledesma is in goal for Rosario Central with an average rating of 6.84

He has recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Facundo Cambeses guards Racing Club's goal with a rating of 7.02

He contributed to 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in all 5 recorded matches at this venue

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