Match report →
Tigre – Belgrano0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tigre
1.24
Total xG
2.12
Belgrano
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigre | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form trend: Belgrano have been scoring more recently (1.6 goals) than their season average, whereas Tigre's offense is stagnating at 1.0 goals per game
- Tactical efficiency: Belgrano averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches despite lower possession (44.0%)
- Historical draw trend: All 4 previous head-to-head encounters between the two teams ended in a draw
Risks
- Tigre enters the match weakened by injuries with three players ruled out
- Belgrano's defense is more vulnerable on the road, conceding 1.22 goals on average compared to 0.82 overall
All probabilities
Result
Tigre43%
Draw33%
Belgrano25%
Double chance
Tigre or draw75%
Belgrano or draw57%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
2:0
9%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigre with Nahuel Banegas: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Belgrano with A. Falcón: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)
- Belgrano: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Tigre 4-2-3-1 · Belgrano 4-2-3-1
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 2 J. Laso
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 3 N. Banegas
- 8 M. Garay
- 30 J. Elías
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 28 G. Martínez
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 14 L. Morales
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 5 S. Longo
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 22 N. Fernández
Substitutes
- 16 N. Dubersarsky
- 21 S. Medina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 11 T. Serrago
- 33 E. Cabrera
- 32 J. Villalba
- 27 S. González
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 18 M. Fernández
- 23 G. Requena
- 26 L. Morales
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 15 R. Tulián
- 4 Agustín Griguol
- 29 M. Ortiz
- 19 S. Gatti
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