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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente - Newell's Old Boys

07/31/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Independiente
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Newell's Old Boys
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
INDNOB

Independiente

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.20
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Newell's Old Boys

Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average)
+0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
MatĂ­as CĂłccaro on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Independiente: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Newell's Old Boys: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Independiente: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Newell's Old Boys: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Squad impact for the visitors: Newell's Old Boys are missing MatĂ­as CĂłccaro and Jeronimo Russo, leaving only 68% of their seasonal goal threat available
  • Statistical matchup: Independiente scores an average of 1.5 goals at home, whereas Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 1.7 goals in away matches
  • Mathematical model: Calculations favor Independiente with a 47% win probability and predict 1.44 home goals
Risk Factors
  • Rising form trend: Newell's Old Boys have scored more frequently in recent matches (1.5) compared to their season average (1.0)
  • Head-to-head record: Independiente has failed to win any of the last 2 encounters against Newell's Old Boys
Overview

Independiente (5th place, 24 points) host Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 15 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 31, 2026, 2:15 AM at the Estadio Libertadores de AmĂ©rica

The hosts enter this fixture as the clear favorites

Form

Independiente shows a form of WLWLW with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Newell's Old Boys are unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of DWDDW, consisting of 2 wins and 3 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Independiente scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.28 goals per match this season

In home games, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded

Newell's Old Boys average 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded in away matches

Both teams scored in 12 of Independiente's 18 matches this season

Head-to-Head

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Newell's Old Boys won 1 while 1 ended in a draw

The most recent encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

The goal difference in these matches stands at 3-2 in favor of Independiente

Key Players

Gabriel Ávalos leads the hosts' attack with 11 goals and 5 assists

MatĂ­as Abaldo has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist so far this season

Maximiliano Gutiérrez recorded 2 goals and 2 assists

For the visitors, Ignacio RamĂ­rez is the top scorer with 4 goals

Walter Mazzantti has registered 1 goal and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.09

Facundo Guch also has 1 goal and 1 assist this term

Goalkeepers

Rodrigo Rey guards the goal for Independiente, recording 5 clean sheets this season

Josué Reinatti starts in goal for Newell's Old Boys, maintaining a high average rating of 7.38 so far

Influences

An average of 3.6 goals per match are scored at the Estadio Libertadores de América

In 3 out of 5 home matches, there were over 2.5 goals and both teams scored

The match will be played on a natural grass surface

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