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Independiente – Newell's Old Boys1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Independiente
1.44
Total xG
2.40
Newell's Old Boys
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matías Cóccaro on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Squad impact for the visitors: Newell's Old Boys are missing Matías Cóccaro and Jeronimo Russo, leaving only 68% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Statistical matchup: Independiente scores an average of 1.5 goals at home, whereas Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 1.7 goals in away matches
- Mathematical model: Calculations favor Independiente with a 47% win probability and predict 1.44 home goals
Risks
- Rising form trend: Newell's Old Boys have scored more frequently in recent matches (1.5) compared to their season average (1.0)
- Head-to-head record: Independiente has failed to win any of the last 2 encounters against Newell's Old Boys
All probabilities
Result
Independiente47%
Draw30%
Newell's Old Boys23%
Double chance
Independiente or draw77%
Newell's Old Boys or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Newell's Old Boys: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Independiente: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Newell's Old Boys: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
Lineups
Independiente 4-2-3-1 · Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 29 L. Godoy
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 36 S. Valdez
- 22 F. Zavala
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 28 M. Gutiérrez
- 7 S. Montiel
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 9 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 24 F. Escobar
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 3 M. Luciano
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 33 W. Núñez
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
Substitutes
- 26 K. Lomónaco
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 37 A. Medina
- 3 J. De Irastorza
- 1 J. Blázquez
- 8 M. Meza
- 18 F. Valdez
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
- 22 O. Salomón
- 28 J. Russo
- 2 I. Glavinovich
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 23 N. Goitea
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 15 A. Soñora
- 35 B. Benedetto
- 34 T. Viola
- 37 M. Villalba
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