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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Argentinos Juniors - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

07/29/2026, 12:15 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentinos Juniors
1.8
Total xG
2.4
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

14%

1:1

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AJEDRC

Argentinos Juniors

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.00
Iván Morales on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Román Riquelme not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Leandro Lozano not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.71
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.09
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
+0.06
Rising form (0.6 vs 0.4 season average)
+0.06
28% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with F. Romero: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Argentinos Juniors: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

25%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Argentinos Juniors averaged 5.6 shots on target and 58% possession in recent matches
  • Home and away trend: The hosts concede only 0.42 goals per home game on average, whereas the visitors concede an average of 4.67 goals away from home
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a clear home win probability of 64% and expects 1.80 home goals
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Low offensive threat from the visitors, who averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Argentinos Juniors vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Liga Profesional de Fútbol on July 29, 2026, 2:15 AM

Home team is 3rd with 29 points

Visitors are 15th with 5 points

A clash between the top tier and the bottom of the table

Form

Home form: LWWDW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Away form: LLLLW (1 win, 4 losses)

Both teams won their last match

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Home team scores avg 1.2 goals and concedes avg 0.8

At home, Argentinos Juniors concede only avg 0.42 goals

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto score avg 0.35 goals

Visitors concede avg 4.67 goals away from home

Home team has 10 clean sheets already

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match so far

Ended in a 0:0 draw on January 30, 2026

Historical record is completely even

Key Players

Alan Lescano: 4 goals, rating 7.09

Tomás Molina: 4 goals, 2 assists in 15 matches

Sebastián Prieto: Defender with a strong 7.08 rating

Sergio Ojeda: 1 goal, rating 6.74 for the visitors

Facundo Cobos: 1 goal, rating 6.9

Mateo Bajamich: 15 appearances, 1 goal

Goalkeepers

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernández: 20 apps, rating 6.85, 10 clean sheets

Lucas Bruera: 1 app, rating 7.44

Away team has 4 clean sheets in total

Influences

Argentinos Juniors benefit from strong home defense (5 goals conceded in 12 games)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto struggle away (14 goals conceded in 3 games)

Venue averages 2.0 goals per game

Grass surface favors the home team

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