Match report →
Argentinos Juniors – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Argentinos Juniors
1.80
Total xG
2.44
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentinos Juniors | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.71 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Rising form (0.6 vs 0.4 season average) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Iván Morales on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Román Riquelme not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leandro Lozano not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 83% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Argentinos Juniors averaged 5.6 shots on target and 58% possession in recent matches
- Home and away trend: The hosts concede only 0.42 goals per home game on average, whereas the visitors concede an average of 4.67 goals away from home
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a clear home win probability of 64% and expects 1.80 home goals
Risks
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Low offensive threat from the visitors, who averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Argentinos Juniors64%
Draw25%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto11%
Double chance
Argentinos Juniors or draw89%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw36%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
2:0
14%
1:1
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with F. Romero: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Argentinos Juniors: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Argentinos Juniors 4-3-1-2 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-4-2-1
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 17 F. Paredes
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 10 A. Lescano
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 9 G. Verón
- 27 T. Molina
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 1 L. Bruera
- 2 G. Maffini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 13 F. Romero
- 8 S. Rosane
- 28 F. Cobos
- 10 T. González
- 16 Y. Moreno Murillo
- 32 M. Bajamich
Substitutes
- 8 L. Gómez
- 7 I. Morales Bravo
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 21 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 23 H. López Muñoz
- 29 E. Viveros Mereles
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 13 S. Gianini
- 37 T. Bautista Gómez
- 40 F. Lo Celso
- 6 J. Antonini
- 26 E. Forclaz
- 31 M. Valenti
- 19 N. Talpone
- 43 A. Lastra
- 45 R. Lozano
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 22 M. Valiente
- 77 I. Hesar
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 27 J. Garro
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →