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Independiente Rivadavia – Huracán2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente Rivadavia
1.25
Total xG
2.30
Huracán
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente Rivadavia | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.3 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Leonel Bucca on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ignacio Campo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Productive offense: Independiente Rivadavia currently scores more (2.3) than their season average (1.9)
- Controlled play: The hosts dominated recently with an average of 60.4% possession
- Defensive strength: Huracán conceded an average of only 0.84 goals per game this season
Risks
- Struggling attack: Huracán's goal production is slowing down (1.25) compared to their season average (1.4)
- Home vulnerability: Independiente Rivadavia concedes avg. 1.00 goals at home compared to only 0.83 away
All probabilities
Result
Independiente Rivadavia39%
Draw32%
Huracán29%
Double chance
Independiente Rivadavia or draw71%
Huracán or draw61%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente Rivadavia with Matías Fernández: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Huracán with Emmanuel Ojeda: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia 4-4-2 · Huracán 5-3-2
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 14 L. Gómez
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 42 S. Studer
- 3 J. Elordi
- 11 G. Ríos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 10 M. Fernández
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 21 H. Nervo
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 8 L. Gil
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Substitutes
- 13 A. Osella
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 20 A. Riep
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 45 L. Sábato
- 4 F. Vera
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 14 S. Martínez
- 34 I. Campo
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 3 L. Carrizo
- 32 S. Meza
- 19 L. Lescano
- 41 L. Mora
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 48 S. Raynelli
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