Match report →
Banfield – Sarmiento3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Banfield
1.78
Total xG
2.52
Sarmiento
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Banfield | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +1.23 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.63 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.55 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Mauro Méndez not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defensive contrast: Banfield concedes only 0.60 goals on average at home, while Sarmiento concedes an average of 2.80 goals away
- Tactical setups: Both teams averaged counter-oriented play in recent matches, with possession under 45%
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 61% home win probability for Banfield
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Banfield with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Lack of offensive threat: Both teams averaged fewer than 3.5 shots on target in recent matches
- Away weakness: Sarmiento concedes an average of 2.80 goals away this season
All probabilities
Result
Banfield61%
Draw26%
Sarmiento14%
Double chance
Banfield or draw86%
Sarmiento or draw39%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Banfield: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Banfield with Santiago Daniele: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Sarmiento: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Banfield 3-5-1-1 · Sarmiento 4-4-2
Banfield
- 1 F. Sanguinetti
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 6 N. Meriano
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 21 L. Villegas
- 10 L. Gómez
- 27 L. Abraham
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 17 T. Perrotta
Sarmiento
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 8 S. Salle
- 15 C. Zabala
- 23 E. Giménez
- 33 G. Díaz
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 7 P. Magnín
Substitutes
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 33 N. Moreno Betancur
- 34 S. Daniele
- 8 L. Ríos
- 9 B. Sepúlveda
- 25 G. Santilli
- 18 F. Medina
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 16 J. Acosta
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 24 J. Herrera
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 4 J. Cabrera
- 26 Y. Arismendi
- 6 G. Arturia
- 12 T. Ayala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 5 M. García
- 35 F. Alaggia
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