Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Instituto - Platense
07/30/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
13%0:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Instituto
Platense
League
The Lab
- 1Instituto with Juan Ignacio MĂ©ndez: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Platense with IvĂĄn GĂłmez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Platense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
33%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Strong home defense: Instituto concedes an average of only 0.73 goals per game on home soil
- Struggling visitors: Platense is winless in 5 matches and averages a low 0.71 goals scored per game this season
- Clear home bias: The model calculates a 42% probability for an Instituto victory compared to 25% for Platense
Risk Factors
- Weakened Platense attack: Missing T. Nasif and A. Lotti leaves only 50% of the team's seasonal goal threat active
- Low-scoring affair: The mathematical model shows only a 35% probability for Over 2.5 goals
- Instituto's offensive slump: The home side averaged fewer goals recently (0.8) compared to their season average (1.0)
Overview
Instituto host Platense at Estadio Juan Domingo PerĂłn
Both teams compete in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Instituto sits in 9th place with 21 points
Platense occupies 12th place with 16 points
Kick-off is scheduled for July 30, 2026, 12:30 AM
Form
Instituto enters with a form of WLDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Their last match ended in a loss against VĂ©lez Sarsfield
Platense is winless in 5 matches with a form of DLLLD
Platense recently secured a draw against UniĂłn Santa Fe
Statistics
Instituto averages 1 goal scored and 1.06 goals conceded per match
Platense averages 0.71 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game
At home, Instituto concedes only 0.73 goals per match
Platense failed to score in 10 matches this season
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 direct encounters in total
Platense won 2 games, while Instituto claimed 1 victory
The last match ended 2-1 in favor of Platense on January 26, 2026
The overall goal difference is balanced at 4-4
Key Players
Alex Luna has scored 5 goals in 16 appearances for the hosts
Diego Sosa contributes from defense with 1 goal and 2 assists
Jhon CĂłrdoba has 1 goal in 13 season appearances
For Platense, NicolĂĄs Retamar is a key asset with 1 goal and 2 assists
Bautista Merlini has scored 2 goals in 15 appearances
Ignacio VĂĄzquez adds defensive stability and scored 1 goal
Goalkeepers
Marcos Ledesma defends the goal for Instituto with a season rating of 6.89
Juan Pablo Cozzani is in goal for Platense holding a season rating of 6.52
Instituto recorded 4 clean sheets this season, while Platense managed 6
Influences
Estadio Juan Domingo PerĂłn features an average of 2.4 goals per match
The stadium both teams to score rate is low at 20%
Instituto displays a solid home defense, conceding only 8 goals in 11 home games
The game will be played on natural grass