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Instituto – Platense2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Instituto
1.20
Total xG
2.08
Platense
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Instituto | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Gastón Lodico not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| T. Nasif not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| A. Lotti not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 50% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong home defense: Instituto concedes an average of only 0.73 goals per game on home soil
- Struggling visitors: Platense is winless in 5 matches and averages a low 0.71 goals scored per game this season
- Clear home bias: The model calculates a 42% probability for an Instituto victory compared to 25% for Platense
Risks
- Weakened Platense attack: Missing T. Nasif and A. Lotti leaves only 50% of the team's seasonal goal threat active
- Low-scoring affair: The mathematical model shows only a 35% probability for Over 2.5 goals
- Instituto's offensive slump: The home side averaged fewer goals recently (0.8) compared to their season average (1.0)
All probabilities
Result
Instituto42%
Draw33%
Platense25%
Double chance
Instituto or draw75%
Platense or draw58%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto with Juan Ignacio Méndez: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Platense with Iván Gómez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Platense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Instituto 3-4-2-1 · Platense 4-3-3
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 10 A. Luna
- 17 M. Tissera
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 4 A. Lagos
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 3 T. Silva
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 5 I. Gómez
- 18 B. Merlini
- 7 G. Mainero
- 23 L. Heredia
- 43 N. Retamar
Substitutes
- 7 N. Guerra
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 23 J. Meli
- 90 P. Baster
- 27 A. Coronel
- 33 J. Gauto
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 17 F. Bussio
- 34 M. Mendia
- 27 S. Dalmasso
- 19 H. Bobadilla Cáceres
- 32 S. Quirós
- 99 G. Lencina
- 26 P. Ferreira
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 6 E. Raggio
- 25 J. Saborido
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