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Boca Juniors – Estudiantes1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Boca Juniors
1.36
Total xG
2.31
Estudiantes
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Boca Juniors | Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.01 | |
| Alan Velasco on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mikel Amondarain not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Boca Juniors are scoring more frequently recently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
- Boca Juniors averaged 6.6 shots on target and dominated possession with 65% in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a 45% probability of a home win for Boca Juniors
Risks
- Boca Juniors face a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Estudiantes present an extremely solid defense, conceding an average of only 0.43 goals in away matches
- Alan Velasco is missing from the Boca Juniors squad
All probabilities
Result
Boca Juniors44%
Draw31%
Estudiantes25%
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw75%
Estudiantes or draw56%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes with Ramiro Funes Mori: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Boca Juniors with Milton Giménez : 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Boca Juniors: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Boca Juniors 4-1-4-1 · Estudiantes 4-2-3-1
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 3 L. Blanco
- 5 L. Paredes
- 19 L. Flores
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 18 M. Delgado
- 10 T. Aranda
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
Estudiantes
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 20 E. Meza
- 4 S. Núñez
- 24 T. Palacios
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 21 L. Piovi
- 22 A. Castro
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 10 T. Palacios
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 9 G. Carrillo
Substitutes
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 20 A. Velasco
- 9 M. Giménez
- 32 A. Costa
- 27 M. Braida
- 23 C. Rey Domenech
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 4 J. Figal
- 12 L. Brey
- 21 K. Zenon
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 19 A. Gaich
- 12 R. Borzone
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 7 J. Sosa
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 27 L. Alario
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 11 F. Farías
- 36 J. Pereyra
- 52 B. Kociubinski
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