đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Boca Juniors - Estudiantes

08/05/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Boca Juniors
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Estudiantes
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BJEST

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+0.30
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.14
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
Alan Velasco  on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)

Estudiantes

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Attack strength (1.34x league average)
+0.01
Mikel Amondarain not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes with Ramiro Funes Mori: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Boca Juniors with Milton Giménez : 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Boca Juniors: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

31%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Boca Juniors are scoring more frequently recently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
  • Boca Juniors averaged 6.6 shots on target and dominated possession with 65% in recent matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a 45% probability of a home win for Boca Juniors
Risk Factors
  • Boca Juniors face a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Estudiantes present an extremely solid defense, conceding an average of only 0.43 goals in away matches
  • Alan Velasco is missing from the Boca Juniors squad
Overview

Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) host Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) at the Estadio Alberto José Armando

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 5, 2026, 10:00 PM

A top-of-the-table clash with leadership on the line

Form

Boca Juniors hold a form of WWLLD in their last five matches

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Estudiantes travel with a form of DWLLW, also recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Boca Juniors recently drew, while Estudiantes secured a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Boca Juniors score an average of 1.37 goals and concede 0.89 goals per game this season

In home matches, they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded

Estudiantes boast a strong defense, conceding only 0.53 goals per game

They concede only 0.43 goals per game in away matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in recent history

Boca Juniors won 2 matches, Estudiantes won 1, with 1 draw

The last encounter on January 29, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Estudiantes

Key Players

Miguel Merentiel (5 goals, 2 assists, rating 6.84)

Leandro Paredes (2 goals, 3 assists, rating 7.55)

TomĂĄs Aranda (1 goal, 3 assists, rating 7.07)

Tiago Palacios (3 goals, 3 assists, rating 7.13)

Guido Carrillo (2 goals, 2 assists, rating 7.05)

TomĂĄs Palacios (1 goal, 1 assist, rating 7.15)

Goalkeepers

Álvaro Montero is in goal for the hosts

Fabricio Iacovich guards the away goal with a strong rating of 7.32 this season

Boca Juniors have kept 9 clean sheets overall, while Estudiantes have kept 10

Influences

The Estadio Alberto José Armando averages 3.4 total goals per game

Boca Juniors show home strength with 1.43 goals scored per home game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.