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Central Cordoba SdE – Atlético Tucumán0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Central Cordoba SdE
0.95
Total xG
2.13
Atlético Tucumán
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Central Cordoba SdE | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.37 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Michael Santos on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ezequiel Naya on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 69% available) |
Key factors
- Offensive upward trend: Advanced stats show Central Cordoba is currently scoring more frequently (1.3) compared to their season average (0.8)
- Tactical playstyle: Central Cordoba played a counter-oriented style in recent matches, averaging just 35.4% possession and 3.2 shots on target
- Defensive home advantage: While the hosts concede an average of only 0.6 goals at home, Atlético Tucumán concedes an average of 1.75 goals in away matches
Risks
- Weakened home attack: Central Cordoba is missing Michael Santos and Ezequiel Naya, leaving only 69% of their usual goalscoring threat available
- Struggling away offense: Atlético Tucumán's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 0.7 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.1
- Lack of shot accuracy: Atlético Tucumán averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Central Cordoba SdE28%
Draw33%
Atlético Tucumán39%
Double chance
Central Cordoba SdE or draw61%
Atlético Tucumán or draw72%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
12%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE with Yuri Casermeiro: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético Tucumán with Cesar Leonel Vega: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético Tucumán: 65% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Central Cordoba SdE 4-2-3-1 · Atlético Tucumán 4-3-3
Central Cordoba SdE
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 33 A. Moyano
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 22 M. Vera
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 7 D. Barrera
- 9 L. Varaldo
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 19 L. Vega
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 9 L. Díaz
Substitutes
- 19 E. Naya
- 37 A. Daian Laprida
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 42 J. Pignani
- 27 M. Santos Rosadilla
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 5 T. Cravero
- 30 F. Ariel Rodriguez Salomon
- 47 M. Cuitiño
- 12 M. Álvarez
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 45 K. Ortíz
- 34 L. Román
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 2 L. Paunero
- 5 J. Fernández
- 4 T. Jung
- 27 R. Granillo González
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