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Racing Club – Tigre1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Racing Club
1.03
Total xG
2.07
Tigre
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Club | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Santiago Solari on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Tomás Conechny on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Rojas not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Santiago Sosa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Marco Di Césare on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 53% of Racing Club's typical goal-scoring threat is available due to key players like Santiago Solari and Tomás Conechny missing
- Racing Club averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
- Mathematical probabilities are extremely balanced with a 33% home win, 34% draw, and 33% away win
Risks
- Racing Club enters this match with a short rest of only 3 days since their last game
- Tigre's offensive form is weak, as they recently averaged only 0.5 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Racing Club33%
Draw34%
Tigre33%
Double chance
Racing Club or draw67%
Tigre or draw67%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
11%
1:0
11%
1:2
7%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club with Matko Miljevic: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Tigre with Sebastián Medina: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Racing Club: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Tigre: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Tigre: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Racing Club 4-3-1-2 · Tigre 4-2-3-1
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 15 G. Martirena
- 23 N. Colombo
- 6 F. Rojo
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 46 A. Tello
- 9 A. Martínez
- 32 L. Díaz
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 2 J. Laso
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 3 N. Banegas
- 8 M. Garay
- 30 J. Elías
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 28 G. Martínez
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Substitutes
- 18 L. Espino García
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 28 S. Solari
- 17 T. Conechny
- 43 G. Escudero
- 34 T. Rubio
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 3 M. Di Cesare
- 22 E. Torres
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 37 S. Aguirre
- 21 S. Medina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 11 T. Serrago
- 33 E. Cabrera
- 32 J. Villalba
- 27 S. González
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 72 M. Rivas Rojas
- 26 L. Morales
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