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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Deportivo Riestra - Barracas Central

08/02/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Deportivo Riestra
0.9
Total xG
1.6
Barracas Central
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

22%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

0:1

12%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
DRBC

Deportivo Riestra

Rising form (1.5 vs 0.7 season average)
+0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.11
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Strong home record (1 vs 0.7 goals/match)

Barracas Central

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.40
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.02
Fernando Tobio on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 95% available)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo Riestra with Mariano Bracamonte: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Barracas Central with Kevin Jappert: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

38%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

49%

Under 1.5

51%

Over 2.5

22%

Under 2.5

78%

Over 3.5

8%

Under 3.5

92%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

62%

Both Score

Yes

31%

No

69%

Key Factors
  • Tactical focus: Both teams played counter-oriented in recent matches, with Deportivo Riestra averaging only 29% possession in past games
  • Defensive fortress: Deportivo Riestra defend extremely well at home, conceding a meager 0.29 average goals per home game this season
  • Lack of goals: According to the model, the probability of over 2.5 goals is at a very low 22%, supported by a historical low-scoring rate at this venue
Risk Factors
  • High draw risk: The mathematical model calculates the probability of a draw at a high 38%
  • Hosts' offensive struggles: Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 12 of their 18 matches this season
  • Injury absences: Barracas Central must play without D. MartĂ­nez and J. Morales, weakening their squad depth
Overview

Deportivo Riestra host Barracas Central at the Estadio Guillermo Laza

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 2, 2026, 6:30 PM

The hosts are in 15th place with 11 points while Barracas Central occupy 9th place with 21 points

An important mid-table encounter

Form

Deportivo Riestra show a form of LWDWL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The home team suffered a defeat in their last match

Barracas Central travel with a form of DDLWW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

The visitors are coming off 2 consecutive wins

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Deportivo Riestra score an average of 0.5 goals per match and concede 0.78 goals this season

In home games, Riestra concede only 0.29 goals on average while scoring 0.5 goals

Barracas Central score an average of 0.94 goals per game and concede 0.83 goals

Away from home, the visitors average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded per match

Deportivo Riestra have also kept 7 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches between these teams

Deportivo Riestra have won 0 matches while Barracas Central registered 1 win and 2 draws

The goal difference is 1:2 from Riestra's perspective

The last meeting on February 1, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Antony Alonso has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 18 appearances this season

Cristian Paz brings stability having completed 17 league matches

Alexander DĂ­az contributed 1 goal in 12 league matches

TomĂĄs Porra recorded 1 goal and 3 assists in 18 appearances

Rodrigo InsĂșa is a key performer with 3 goals and 1 assist in 18 matches

IvĂĄn Tapia registered 1 goal and 2 assists in 18 matches

Goalkeepers

Ignacio Arce has guarded Deportivo Riestra's goal 18 times this season, holding an average rating of 7.26

Marcelo Miño has played 13 matches for Barracas Central with a strong rating of 7.4

Both goalkeepers have proven to be reliable supports for their teams this season

Influences

An average of only 1.6 goals are scored per match at the Estadio Guillermo Laza

The both teams to score rate is a very low 20% at this venue

Riestra utilize their home advantage defensively, conceding just 0.29 goals per home game

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