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Deportivo Riestra – Barracas Central0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Riestra
0.92
Total xG
1.60
Barracas Central
0.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Riestra | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 0.7 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.02 | |
| Fernando Tobio on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1 vs 0.7 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical focus: Both teams played counter-oriented in recent matches, with Deportivo Riestra averaging only 29% possession in past games
- Defensive fortress: Deportivo Riestra defend extremely well at home, conceding a meager 0.29 average goals per home game this season
- Lack of goals: According to the model, the probability of over 2.5 goals is at a very low 22%, supported by a historical low-scoring rate at this venue
Risks
- High draw risk: The mathematical model calculates the probability of a draw at a high 38%
- Hosts' offensive struggles: Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 12 of their 18 matches this season
- Injury absences: Barracas Central must play without D. Martínez and J. Morales, weakening their squad depth
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Riestra38%
Draw38%
Barracas Central24%
Double chance
Deportivo Riestra or draw76%
Barracas Central or draw62%
No draw62%
Goals
Over 1.549%
Under 1.551%
Over 2.522%
Under 2.578%
Over 3.58%
Under 3.592%
Both teams score
Yes31%
No69%
Most likely scores
0:0
22%
1:0
17%
1:1
14%
0:1
12%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo Riestra with Mariano Bracamonte: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Barracas Central with Kevin Jappert: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1 · Barracas Central 5-3-2
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 22 C. Paz
- 2 C. Quintana
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 11 A. Díaz
- 8 M. Céliz
- 16 N. Watson
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 9 G. Benegas
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 13 R. Barrios
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 6 R. Insúa
- 8 T. Porra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 77 F. Bruera
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
Substitutes
- 21 T. González
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 32 G. Flores
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 27 J. Goitía
- 14 P. Monje
- 13 R. Gallo
- 24 F. Miño
- 3 E. Tovo
- 20 T. Lauro
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 37 G. Campi
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 33 G. Maroni
- 24 E. Taborda
- 79 M. Puig
- 32 O. Tobio
- 2 N. Capraro
- 19 C. Arce
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 7 J. Barbieri
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