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Lanús – Instituto0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lanús
1.13
Total xG
2.06
Instituto
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lanús | Instituto |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Attack strength (1.82x league average) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ramiro Carrera on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Yoshan Valois on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 65% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Gastón Lodico on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Lanús: Only 51% of the usual starting goal threat is available as key players Ramiro Carrera (2G/3A) and Yoshan Valois (2G/0A) are missing
- Home defense vs away struggles: Lanús concedes only 0.56 goals per home game, whereas Instituto concedes 1.67 goals on average on the road
- Historical home dominance: Lanús remains unbeaten in head-to-head home fixtures against Instituto with 2 wins and 2 draws
Risks
- Fatigue factor for the visitors: Instituto has had only 4 days of rest since their last match, compared to 8 days of recovery for Lanús
- Low-scoring stadium trend: Venue history at this stadium shows an extremely low average of 0.4 total goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Lanús38%
Draw34%
Instituto28%
Double chance
Lanús or draw72%
Instituto or draw62%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús with Agustín Medina: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Lanús: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Instituto with Matías Gallardo: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Lanús: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Lanús 4-2-3-1 · Instituto 3-4-2-1
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 8 F. Watson
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 30 J. Galván
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 10 A. Luna
- 17 M. Tissera
Substitutes
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 23 R. Carrera
- 9 W. Bou
- 25 D. Aquino
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 17 D. Medina
- 2 L. Romero
- 38 B. Acosta
- 39 T. Laplace
- 7 N. Guerra
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 19 G. Lodico
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 23 J. Meli
- 90 P. Baster
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