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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Lanús - Instituto

08/03/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Lanús
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Instituto
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
LANINS

Lanús

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (0.3 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.09
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.06
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
Ramiro Carrera on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Yoshan Valois on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
65% of goal output missing (only 51% available)

Instituto

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.17
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
Attack strength (1.82x league average)
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Gastón Lodico on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús with Agustín Medina: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Lanús: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Instituto with Matías Gallardo: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Lanús: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

34%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Lanús: Only 51% of the usual starting goal threat is available as key players Ramiro Carrera (2G/3A) and Yoshan Valois (2G/0A) are missing
  • Home defense vs away struggles: Lanús concedes only 0.56 goals per home game, whereas Instituto concedes 1.67 goals on average on the road
  • Historical home dominance: Lanús remains unbeaten in head-to-head home fixtures against Instituto with 2 wins and 2 draws
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor for the visitors: Instituto has had only 4 days of rest since their last match, compared to 8 days of recovery for Lanús
  • Low-scoring stadium trend: Venue history at this stadium shows an extremely low average of 0.4 total goals per match
Overview

Lanús hosts Instituto at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

The home side sits 6th with 24 points while the visitors are 9th with 21 points

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 3, 2026, 1:30 AM

Form

Lanús displays a form string of LDDLW with a victory in their latest match

Instituto shows a form string of LDWLW and also won their last game

Both teams recovered with a win in their most recent fixture

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lanús averages 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game

The home defense is highly solid with only 0.56 goals conceded per home match

Instituto concedes an average of 1.67 goals per away game while scoring 1.00

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Lanús has 2 wins while 2 matches ended in a draw

The last encounter on February 4, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

Lanús leads the historical goals tally by 8 to 3

Key Players

Carlos Izquierdoz solidifies the Lanús defense and has scored 2 goals this season

Diego Sosa is a key playmaker for Instituto with 4 assists and 1 goal

Alex Luna is the top threat in Instituto's midfield with 5 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Losada has recorded 8 clean sheets this season for the home side

Marcos Ledesma guards the goal for the visitors with a season rating of 6.91

Influences

Home advantage is strong with Lanús securing 6 clean sheets in 9 home games

The match history at this venue shows extremely low-scoring games with only 0.4 goals per match on average

The match will be played on natural grass

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