Match report →
Belgrano – Argentinos Juniors0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Belgrano
0.95
Total xG
1.79
Argentinos Juniors
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgrano | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Lucas Passerini on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Francisco González Metilli not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alan Lescano not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Facundo Jainikoski on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Román Riquelme not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leandro Lozano not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical prediction favors the home team with a 71% probability of a home win or draw
- Argentinos Juniors averaged 6.8 shots on target with 59% possession in recent matches
- Strong defensive display by Belgrano with an average of only 0.5 goals conceded per home match
Risks
- Increased fatigue for Argentinos Juniors with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Diminished offensive power for the visitors with only 83% of their usual goal threat available on the pitch
- Vulnerability of the visitors on the road with an average of 1.38 goals conceded per away match
All probabilities
Result
Belgrano35%
Draw36%
Argentinos Juniors29%
Double chance
Belgrano or draw71%
Argentinos Juniors or draw65%
No draw64%
Goals
Over 1.555%
Under 1.545%
Over 2.527%
Under 2.573%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
0:0
19%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
12%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano with Santiago Longo: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Argentinos Juniors with Federico Fattori: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)
- Argentinos Juniors: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Belgrano 4-2-3-1 · Argentinos Juniors 4-3-1-2
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 14 L. Morales
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 22 N. Fernández
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 21 C. Florentín
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 23 H. López Muñoz
- 27 T. Molina
- 9 G. Verón
Substitutes
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 5 S. Longo
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 13 ?. Ocampo
- 15 R. Tulián
- 4 Agustín Griguol
- 29 M. Ortiz
- 19 S. Gatti
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 32 G. Infantino
- 26 C. Bravo
- 47 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 29 E. Viveros Mereles
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 36 G. Bouhier
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 13 S. Gianini
- 35 A. Alcaraz
- 37 T. Bautista Gómez
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