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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Belgrano - Argentinos Juniors

08/01/2026, 09:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.0
Total xG
1.8
Argentinos Juniors
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

12%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
BELAJ

Belgrano

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Lucas Passerini  on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists)
Francisco GonzĂĄlez Metilli not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)

Argentinos Juniors

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.01
Alan Lescano not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Facundo Jainikoski on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
RomĂĄn Riquelme not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Leandro Lozano not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano with Santiago Longo: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Argentinos Juniors with Federico Fattori: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Belgrano: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)

  • 5
    Argentinos Juniors: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

36%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical prediction favors the home team with a 71% probability of a home win or draw
  • Argentinos Juniors averaged 6.8 shots on target with 59% possession in recent matches
  • Strong defensive display by Belgrano with an average of only 0.5 goals conceded per home match
Risk Factors
  • Increased fatigue for Argentinos Juniors with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Diminished offensive power for the visitors with only 83% of their usual goal threat available on the pitch
  • Vulnerability of the visitors on the road with an average of 1.38 goals conceded per away match
Overview

Belgrano host Argentinos Juniors at the Estadio Julio CĂ©sar Villagra

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 1, 2026, 9:00 PM

A top-tier clash between 5th and 3rd place

Belgrano sit in 5th place with 26 points

Argentinos Juniors occupy 3rd place with 29 points

Form

Belgrano show strong form with WWDWW in their recent matches

Argentinos Juniors have an identical record of WWDWW

Both teams secured 4 wins and 1 draw recently

According to advancedStats, both teams have a positive form trend

Belgrano are currently scoring more at 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4

Argentinos Juniors improved their scoring to 2.0 goals per match from a season average of 1.5

Statistics

Belgrano average 1.24 goals scored and 0.81 goals conceded per match this season

At home, Belgrano's defense is very stable, conceding just 0.5 goals per game

Argentinos Juniors score 1.29 goals and concede 0.76 goals on average

Away from home, the visitors concede significantly more at 1.38 goals per game

Matches at this venue average only 2.2 total goals

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is even with 1 win each and 3 draws over the last 5 meetings

Both teams have scored exactly 3 goals in these matches

The most recent encounter on May 17, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez leads Belgrano's attack with 5 goals this season

Lucas ZelarayĂĄn has contributed 4 goals and 2 assists so far

TomĂĄs Molina is key for the visitors with 4 goals and 3 assists

Hernån López Muñoz has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Thiago Cardozo has recorded 10 clean sheets in 20 appearances for Belgrano

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernåndez has kept 11 clean sheets in 21 games for the visitors

Influences

Belgrano's home advantage is highlighted by conceding only 6 goals in 12 home matches

The grass pitch at Estadio Julio CĂ©sar Villagra allows for clean ground passing

The historical BTTS rate at this stadium is low at 20%

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