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River Plate – Rosario Central0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
River Plate
1.74
Total xG
2.65
Rosario Central
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | River Plate | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.83 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Tomás Galván on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos Acuña not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home win probability calculated at 56% by the model
- River Plate dominated possession recently with an average of 65% in their last 5 matches
- Rosario Central score consistently with an average of 1.5 goals per match
Risks
- River Plate's goal scoring slowed down recently to 1.0 goals average compared to their 1.4 season average
- Key players missing: Tomás Galván and Marcos Acuña are not nominated
- Rosario Central concede an average of 1.33 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
River Plate56%
Draw26%
Rosario Central18%
Double chance
River Plate or draw82%
Rosario Central or draw45%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate with Aníbal Moreno: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Rosario Central with Alexis Soto: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Rosario Central: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- River Plate: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
River Plate 4-2-3-1 · Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 15 F. Vera
- 6 A. Moreno
- 35 J. Freitas
- 11 F. Colidio
- 19 R. Borré Maury
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Substitutes
- 18 L. Beltrán
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 26 T. Galván
- 31 F. González
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. González Apud
- 43 V. Lucero
- 1 A. Werner
- 28 G. Fernández
- 33 A. Soto
- 47 L. Raffin
- 31 F. Navarro
- 39 F. Oviedo
- 19 S. Segovia
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 7 M. Cabrera
- 2 S. Zaracho
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