đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Rosario Central

08/02/2026, 10:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Rosario Central
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RPRC

River Plate

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.83
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Marcos Acuña not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Rosario Central

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    River Plate with AnĂ­bal Moreno: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rosario Central with Alexis Soto: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rosario Central: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    River Plate: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

26%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Home win probability calculated at 56% by the model
  • River Plate dominated possession recently with an average of 65% in their last 5 matches
  • Rosario Central score consistently with an average of 1.5 goals per match
Risk Factors
  • River Plate's goal scoring slowed down recently to 1.0 goals average compared to their 1.4 season average
  • Key players missing: TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn and Marcos Acuña are not nominated
  • Rosario Central concede an average of 1.33 goals per away match
Overview

River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) host Rosario Central (4th place, 28 points) at Estadio MĂąs Monumental

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on August 2, 2026, 11:15 PM

Top-four clash for key table positions

Form

River Plate show unstable form with three consecutive losses (Form: WWLLL)

Rosario Central stabilized with a recent draw (Form: WWLLD)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

River Plate got 2 wins and 3 losses in 5 games

Rosario Central got 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Statistics

River Plate average 1.32 goals scored and 0.86 conceded

Rosario Central average 1.24 goals scored and 1.00 conceded

Rosario Central away average 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded

Head-to-Head

In 5 matches, River Plate has 2 wins, Rosario Central 1 win, and 2 draws

Goal difference is 8:4 for River Plate

Last match ended 1:0 for River Plate on May 16, 2026

Key Players

Facundo Colidio with 5 goals and 3 assists

Lucas MartĂ­nez Quarta with 2 goals (Rating 7.03)

AnĂ­bal Moreno with 3 assists (Rating 7.07)

Ángel Di María with 5 goals and 4 assists

Franco Ibarra with a 7.29 season rating

JĂĄminton Campaz with 1 goal and 4 assists

Not nominated: Tomås Galvån (3G/2A), Marcos Acuña (1G/1A), Enzo Giménez (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn keeps 9 clean sheets this season

Conan Ledesma registered 5 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage on grass at Estadio MĂąs Monumental

Average of 2.0 goals per game in recent matches at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.