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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Unión Santa Fe

08/01/2026, 06:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Unión Santa Fe
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
GYEMUSF

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.30
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
Ignacio Sabatini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Unión Santa Fe

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.63
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.58
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Rafael Profini not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Marcelo Estigarribia on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Mateo Del Blanco not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Brahian David Cuello on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Matías Recalde: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage and tight defense: Mendoza concedes an average of only 0.67 goals per game in their own stadium
  • Tactical activity: Mendoza recently averaged 4.0 shots on target, while Unión Santa Fe averaged 5.4 shots on target
  • Historical dominance: Mendoza won the only previous head-to-head encounter in February 2026 with a clear 4-0 victory
Risk Factors
  • Rafael Profini, Marcelo Estigarribia, Mateo Del Blanco, Brahian David Cuello are missing, only 63% of goals share available
  • Vulnerable away defense of Unión Santa Fe with an average of 1.67 goals conceded per game and no away clean sheets so far
Overview

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza host Unión Santa Fe

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 1, 2026, 6:30 PM

Home team is in 11th place with 19 points

Visitors from Santa Fe are in 8th place with 21 points

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

Mendoza entering with form WLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recent match was a 0-1 loss against San Lorenzo

A total of 3 wins and 2 losses from their last 5 matches

Unión Santa Fe arrives with form DDWLD

The visitors recently recorded a 2-2 draw against Platense

Statistics

Mendoza scored 15 goals this season, averaging 0.83 per game

In home matches they conceded only 8 goals in 12 games (avg 0.67)

Unión Santa Fe scored 28 goals (avg 1.47)

Away from home the visitors conceded 20 goals in 12 matches (avg 1.67)

Both teams scored in 11 out of 19 matches for the visitors

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza won that away match 4-0

The game was played on February 3, 2026

The single encounter shows dominance by today's home side

Key Players

Agustín Módica scored 5 goals this season for the hosts

Facundo Lencioni contributed 2 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.16

Ezequiel Muñoz stabilizes the defense and scored 2 goals

For the visitors, Cristian Tarragona shines with 9 goals this season

Julián Palacios impresses with 3 goals and 7 assists with a rating of 7.01

Juan Pablo Ludueña brings defensive stability with 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Cesar Rigamonti has played 16 matches in goal for the hosts

He guards the goal of a team with 5 clean sheets in total

Matías Mansilla made 19 appearances for Unión Santa Fe

His team also recorded 5 clean sheets but has none away from home

Influences

Estadio Feliciano Gambarte averages 2.6 goals per match

Mendoza shows a strong defense at home, conceding only 0.67 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at this venue

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