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Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Unión Santa Fe2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.46
Total xG
2.77
Unión Santa Fe
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Unión Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.63 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.30 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Ignacio Sabatini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rafael Profini not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Marcelo Estigarribia on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mateo Del Blanco not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brahian David Cuello on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage and tight defense: Mendoza concedes an average of only 0.67 goals per game in their own stadium
- Tactical activity: Mendoza recently averaged 4.0 shots on target, while Unión Santa Fe averaged 5.4 shots on target
- Historical dominance: Mendoza won the only previous head-to-head encounter in February 2026 with a clear 4-0 victory
Risks
- Rafael Profini, Marcelo Estigarribia, Mateo Del Blanco, Brahian David Cuello are missing, only 63% of goals share available
- Vulnerable away defense of Unión Santa Fe with an average of 1.67 goals conceded per game and no away clean sheets so far
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza39%
Draw28%
Unión Santa Fe32%
Double chance
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw68%
Unión Santa Fe or draw61%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Matías Recalde: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-3-1-2 · Unión Santa Fe 4-1-3-2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 42 L. Carrera
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 30 E. Fernández
- 21 F. Antonini
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 9 A. Módica
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 35 L. Vargas
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 5 L. Menossi
- 20 J. Palacios
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 25 C. Tarragona
- 31 M. Aguirre
Substitutes
- 35 V. Simoni
- 32 L. Paredes
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 28 T. O'Connor
- 10 N. Romano Di Marco
- 33 O. Andrada
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 5 N. Barboza
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 16 G. Guiffrey
- 41 G. Patritti
- 22 B. Cuello
- 46 S. Grella
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 12 B. Pittón
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 29 S. Vera
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 36 M. Aimar
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 33 I. Isla
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