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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Newell's Old Boys - Boca Juniors

08/02/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Newell's Old Boys
0.8
Total xG
2.2
Boca Juniors
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
NOBBJ

Newell's Old Boys

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.46
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.08
Walter NĂșñez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.70
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.05
Alan Velasco  on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Newell's Old Boys: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Newell's Old Boys with Luciano Herrera: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Boca Juniors: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Boca Juniors with Leandro Paredes: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

31%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Tactical setup: Boca Juniors dominated recently with an average of 59% possession and 6.8 shots on target per match, while Newell's relied on counter-attacks with 41% possession
  • Offensive trend: Boca Juniors are currently scoring more frequently, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Table and model advantage: Second-placed Boca Juniors are clear favorites, with the mathematical model calculating a 48% win probability
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue: Newell's Old Boys enter this match with only 2 days of rest since their last game
  • Vulnerable defense: Newell's Old Boys have conceded an average of 1.56 goals per game this season
  • Limited offensive threat: Newell's averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 15 points) host Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 2, 2026, 10:00 PM

Venue is the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Second-placed Boca Juniors aim to keep the pressure on the league leaders

The mathematical model calculates a win probability of 48% for the visitors

Form

Home team form: WDDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Away team form: WWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Newell's Old Boys recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Boca Juniors recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Both teams lost their most recent match

Statistics

Newell's Old Boys scored an average of 0.89 goals and conceded 1.56 goals per game this season

At home, they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

Boca Juniors scored 1.33 goals per match on average while conceding just 0.83 goals

Away from home, the visitors are defensively solid, conceding only 0.9 goals per match

The model expects 0.84 goals for the hosts and 1.38 goals for the visitors

Head-to-Head

Boca Juniors clearly dominate the recent direct duels

Boca Juniors won 3 of the last 4 encounters, while Newell's Old Boys won 1

The goal difference stands at 8:2 in favor of the visitors

The last meeting on February 1, 2026, ended in a 2:0 away victory for Boca Juniors

Key Players

For the hosts, Walter Mazzantti stands out with a season rating of 7.09

MatĂ­as CĂłccaro has recorded 2 goals and 2 assists this season

Leandro Paredes is a key factor for Boca Juniors with an average rating of 7.57

Miguel Merentiel has contributed 5 goals this season

Not nominated: Walter NĂșñez (1 Goal/1 Assist) and Alan Velasco (2 Goals/1 Assist)

Goalkeepers

Josué Reinatti guards the net for Newell's Old Boys with a strong rating of 7.38

Álvaro Montero plays in goal for Boca Juniors with a rating of 6.08

Newell's Old Boys kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Boca Juniors secured 9 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Venue statistics show a very low-scoring history with an average of 1.2 goals per game

Home advantage for Newell's Old Boys is backed by 3 clean sheets in 8 home matches

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