Match report →
Newell's Old Boys – Boca Juniors2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Newell's Old Boys
0.84
Total xG
2.23
Boca Juniors
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newell's Old Boys | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.70 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Walter Núñez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Alan Velasco on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical setup: Boca Juniors dominated recently with an average of 59% possession and 6.8 shots on target per match, while Newell's relied on counter-attacks with 41% possession
- Offensive trend: Boca Juniors are currently scoring more frequently, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.5
- Table and model advantage: Second-placed Boca Juniors are clear favorites, with the mathematical model calculating a 48% win probability
Risks
- High fatigue: Newell's Old Boys enter this match with only 2 days of rest since their last game
- Vulnerable defense: Newell's Old Boys have conceded an average of 1.56 goals per game this season
- Limited offensive threat: Newell's averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Newell's Old Boys21%
Draw31%
Boca Juniors48%
Double chance
Newell's Old Boys or draw52%
Boca Juniors or draw79%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
13%
0:0
12%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Newell's Old Boys: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Newell's Old Boys with Luciano Herrera: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Boca Juniors: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Boca Juniors with Leandro Paredes: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1 · Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 24 F. Escobar
- 23 N. Goitea
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 28 J. Russo
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 39 L.Rios
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 32 A. Costa
- 3 L. Blanco
- 5 L. Paredes
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 19 L. Flores
- 10 T. Aranda
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
Substitutes
- 27 L. Gómez
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 2 I. Glavinovich
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 29 M. Esponda
- 3 M. Luciano
- 10 V. Acuña
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 18 M. García
- 15 A. Soñora
- 35 B. Benedetto
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 20 A. Velasco
- 9 M. Giménez
- 27 M. Braida
- 23 C. Rey Domenech
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 4 J. Figal
- 18 M. Delgado
- 12 L. Brey
- 21 K. Zenon
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