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Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Banfield0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
1.08
Total xG
2.21
Banfield
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 47% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Mauro Méndez not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Gómez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad Impact: Only 54% of the usual goal threat is available for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto due to injuries
- Tactical Advantage: Banfield averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 2.8 for the hosts
- Away Weakness vs Home Defense: Banfield concedes 2.33 goals on average away, while Estudiantes only allows 0.67 at home
Risks
- Short Recovery Time: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Away Vulnerability: Banfield concedes a high average of 2.33 goals per away game
- Offensive Struggles: The hosts have failed to score in 13 matches already this season
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto32%
Draw33%
Banfield35%
Double chance
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw65%
Banfield or draw68%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
11%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with F. Romero: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Banfield: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Banfield with Santiago Esquivel: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-1-4-2 · Banfield 3-4-1-2
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 1 L. Bruera
- 2 G. Maffini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 13 F. Romero
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 19 N. Talpone
- 10 T. González
- 17 G. Alanís
- 16 Y. Moreno Murillo
- 27 J. Garro
Banfield
- 1 F. Sanguinetti
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 34 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 21 L. Villegas
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 27 L. Abraham
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 9 B. Sepúlveda
- 17 T. Perrotta
Substitutes
- 40 F. Lo Celso
- 6 J. Antonini
- 8 S. Rosane
- 26 E. Forclaz
- 31 M. Valenti
- 43 A. Lastra
- 28 F. Cobos
- 45 R. Lozano
- 32 M. Bajamich
- 77 I. Hesar
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 18 J. Rivero
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 33 N. Moreno Betancur
- 8 L. Ríos
- 10 L. Gómez
- 25 G. Santilli
- 18 F. Medina
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 16 J. Acosta
- 26 M. Mendizabal
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