đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Sarmiento - Independiente Rivadavia

08/03/2026, 07:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sarmiento
0.9
Total xG
1.9
Independiente Rivadavia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

12%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
SARIR

Sarmiento

Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.10
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Pablo Magnin on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

Independiente Rivadavia

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Juan Elordi on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Luciano GĂłmez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
José Florentín on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Leonard Costa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Álex Arce  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Sheyko Studer on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Independiente Rivadavia with MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sarmiento: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Sarmiento: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Sarmiento: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Sarmiento with Mauricio MartĂ­nez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

35%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.6 shots on target recently, compared to Sarmiento's average of 3.2
  • Gap in standings and form: League leaders Independiente Rivadavia sit on 34 points while Sarmiento have 19 points and lost 4 of their last 5 matches
  • Historical edge: Independiente Rivadavia won both of the 2 direct duels in their history
Risk Factors
  • Significant squad impact: Independiente Rivadavia are missing 6 key players including Juan Elordi, Luciano GĂłmez, JosĂ© FlorentĂ­n, Leonard Costa, Álex Arce and Sheyko Studer, leaving only 81% of their active goal threat available
  • Short recovery time: Independiente Rivadavia have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Solid home defense: Sarmiento concede an average of only 0.75 goals per game on home soil
Overview

Sarmiento (11th place, 19 points) host league leaders Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 34 points) at Estadio Eva PerĂłn de JunĂ­n

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 3, 2026, 8:45 PM

Sarmiento aim to move up from the lower mid-table while the visitors fight to stay on top

Form

Sarmiento show a weak form trend of LWLLL (1 win, 4 losses)

Independiente Rivadavia are in stable form with WDLDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Sarmiento lost their last match 2-3 to Banfield while Independiente Rivadavia won 2-1 against HuracĂĄn

Statistics

Sarmiento average 0.94 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game

Independiente Rivadavia are stronger offensively with 1.68 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded on average

The visitors are defensively solid on the road, conceding only 0.83 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in history

Both games were won by Independiente Rivadavia (2 wins, 0 draws)

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Independiente Rivadavia

Key Players

Junior Marabel is Sarmiento's top threat with 8 league goals

Cristian Zabala has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist from midfield

Fabrizio Sartori has scored 7 goals for Independiente Rivadavia this season

Goalkeepers

Thyago Ayala starts in goal for Sarmiento

NicolĂĄs Bolcato has played 17 games for the visitors with an average rating of 6.79

Both teams have achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Estadio Eva PerĂłn de JunĂ­n

Sarmiento's home record shows 5 clean sheets in 12 home matches

The stadium has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.