Match report →
Sarmiento – Independiente Rivadavia2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sarmiento
0.92
Total xG
1.89
Independiente Rivadavia
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sarmiento | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Pablo Magnin on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Juan Elordi on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luciano Gómez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| José Florentín on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Leonard Costa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Álex Arce on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Sheyko Studer on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.6 shots on target recently, compared to Sarmiento's average of 3.2
- Gap in standings and form: League leaders Independiente Rivadavia sit on 34 points while Sarmiento have 19 points and lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Historical edge: Independiente Rivadavia won both of the 2 direct duels in their history
Risks
- Significant squad impact: Independiente Rivadavia are missing 6 key players including Juan Elordi, Luciano Gómez, José Florentín, Leonard Costa, Álex Arce and Sheyko Studer, leaving only 81% of their active goal threat available
- Short recovery time: Independiente Rivadavia have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Solid home defense: Sarmiento concede an average of only 0.75 goals per game on home soil
All probabilities
Result
Sarmiento31%
Draw35%
Independiente Rivadavia33%
Double chance
Sarmiento or draw67%
Independiente Rivadavia or draw69%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
12%
0:2
7%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente Rivadavia with Matías Fernández: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Sarmiento: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Sarmiento: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Sarmiento: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Sarmiento with Mauricio Martínez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Sarmiento 4-4-2 · Independiente Rivadavia 4-3-1-2
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 8 S. Salle
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 19 J. Contrera
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 24 J. Herrera
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 20 A. Riep
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 13 A. Osella
- 27 D. Mayans
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 5 T. Bottari
- 8 L. Bucca
- 19 R. Atencio
- 10 M. Fernández
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
Substitutes
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 33 G. Díaz
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 35 F. Alaggia
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 3 J. Elordi
- 7 V. Ramis
- 42 S. Studer
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 11 G. Ríos
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 45 L. Sábato
- 55 M. Salvo
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