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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Estudiantes - Defensa y Justicia

08/01/2026, 09:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Estudiantes
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Defensa y Justicia
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ESTDYJ

Estudiantes

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Mikel Amondarain not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

Defensa y Justicia

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.08
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
AarĂłn Molinas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Ayrton Portillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Estudiantes with José Sosa: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Estudiantes: 100% of all goals in the second half (10 of 10, last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Excellent home defense: Estudiantes concede an average of only 0.70 goals per home game
  • Mathematical edge: The model calculates a home win probability of 49%
  • Expected goals: The statistical analysis predicts 1.44 goals for Estudiantes compared to 0.85 for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • AarĂłn Molinas, Ayrton Portillo missing for Defensa y Justicia, leaving only 65% of regular starting lineup strength available
  • Fatigue factor: Defensa y Justicia has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Attacking slump: Estudiantes averaged only 0.75 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.27
Overview

Estudiantes (2nd place, 31 points) host Defensa y Justicia (10th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 1, 2026, 9:00 PM

Estudiantes aim to close the gap to the top of the table

The home side is the favorite for this encounter

Form

Estudiantes enter with form WDWLL and consecutive losses in their last two games

Defensa y Justicia improved recently with form LLLDW

The home team has 2 wins in their last 5 matches

The away team recorded 1 win and 1 draw in their last 5 games

Statistics

Estudiantes possess a strong defense conceding average 0.56 goals per game

The home side kept 9 clean sheets this season

Defensa y Justicia conceded 23 goals in 18 matches

The visitors average 1.17 goals scored per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in total

Estudiantes lead the historic record with 2 wins

The last meeting on February 2, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

Only 3 goals have been scored in total across these meetings

Key Players

Tiago Palacios contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Alexis Castro has scored 3 goals so far for the home side

Juan Gutiérrez is the main threat for the visitors with 4 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Fernando Muslera has a season average rating of 7.02

MatĂ­as Borgogno has played only 2 games in goal this season

Estudiantes kept 9 clean sheets compared to 5 for the visitors

Influences

The match will take place at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Estudiantes concede average 0.7 goals in home games

No weather data is available in the dataset

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