Match report →
Estudiantes – Defensa y Justicia3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes
1.44
Total xG
2.29
Defensa y Justicia
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Mikel Amondarain not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Aarón Molinas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ayrton Portillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Excellent home defense: Estudiantes concede an average of only 0.70 goals per home game
- Mathematical edge: The model calculates a home win probability of 49%
- Expected goals: The statistical analysis predicts 1.44 goals for Estudiantes compared to 0.85 for the visitors
Risks
- Aarón Molinas, Ayrton Portillo missing for Defensa y Justicia, leaving only 65% of regular starting lineup strength available
- Fatigue factor: Defensa y Justicia has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Attacking slump: Estudiantes averaged only 0.75 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.27
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes49%
Draw30%
Defensa y Justicia21%
Double chance
Estudiantes or draw79%
Defensa y Justicia or draw51%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Estudiantes with José Sosa: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Estudiantes: 100% of all goals in the second half (10 of 10, last 8 games)
Lineups
Estudiantes 4-2-3-1 · Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 20 E. Meza
- 4 S. Núñez
- 24 T. Palacios
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 21 L. Piovi
- 22 A. Castro
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 10 T. Palacios
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 9 G. Carrillo
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 33 L. Souto
- 29 D. Fernández
- 2 E. Lucero
- 40 M. Rodríguez
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 17 A. Hausch
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Substitutes
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 19 A. Gaich
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 7 J. Sosa
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 27 L. Alario
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 11 F. Farías
- 36 J. Pereyra
- 52 B. Kociubinski
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 36 L. Amade
- 23 M. Aguiar
- 16 A. Portillo
- 25 F. Altamira
- 7 T. Pérez
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 27 D. Blanco
- 41 R. Gagliardi
- 44 Máximo Jonás Cabrera
- 45 T. Martínez
- 13 M. López
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →