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Huracán – Atlético Tucumán0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Huracán
1.26
Total xG
2.12
Atlético Tucumán
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Huracán | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| César Ibáñez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ignacio Campo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home defensive strength: Huracán concede just 0.73 goals per match on home soil
- Tactical advantage: Huracán averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to the visitors' 2.8
- Weak away record: Atlético Tucumán concede an average of 1.4 goals per match away from home
Risks
- Slowing offense: Atlético Tucumán's goal production has slowed down to 1.0 per match compared to their season average
- Sidelined key players: Huracán are missing key players C. Ibáñez and F. Waller Martiarena due to injury
- Fatigue factor: Atlético Tucumán have only 4 days of rest since their last match, giving them less recovery time
All probabilities
Result
Huracán44%
Draw32%
Atlético Tucumán24%
Double chance
Huracán or draw76%
Atlético Tucumán or draw56%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Tucumán: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Huracán with Emmanuel Ojeda: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Huracán: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Huracán: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Huracán: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Huracán 4-3-3 · Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 21 H. Nervo
- 3 L. Carrizo
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 8 L. Gil
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 19 L. Vega
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 9 L. Díaz
Substitutes
- 4 F. Vera
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 14 S. Martínez
- 34 I. Campo
- 32 S. Meza
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 41 L. Mora
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 46 F. Martínez
- 48 S. Raynelli
- 51 M. Soto
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 45 K. Ortíz
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 2 L. Paunero
- 5 J. Fernández
- 4 T. Jung
- 27 R. Granillo González
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