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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Huracán - Atlético Tucumán

08/04/2026, 12:15 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Huracán
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Atlético Tucumán
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
HURAT

Huracán

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.03
César Ibáñez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Ignacio Campo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Atlético Tucumán

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Tucumán: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 2
    Huracán with Emmanuel Ojeda: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Huracán: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Huracán: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Huracán: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

32%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Home defensive strength: Huracán concede just 0.73 goals per match on home soil
  • Tactical advantage: Huracán averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to the visitors' 2.8
  • Weak away record: Atlético Tucumán concede an average of 1.4 goals per match away from home
Risk Factors
  • Slowing offense: Atlético Tucumán's goal production has slowed down to 1.0 per match compared to their season average
  • Sidelined key players: Huracán are missing key players C. Ibáñez and F. Waller Martiarena due to injury
  • Fatigue factor: Atlético Tucumán have only 4 days of rest since their last match, giving them less recovery time
Overview

Huracán host Atlético Tucumán at the Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 4, 2026, 2:15 AM

Huracán sit in 7th place with 22 points

Atlético Tucumán occupy 13th place with 14 points

The home side enters as favorites with a model-predicted win probability of 44%

Form

Huracán show mixed form with a DWLWL record

In their last match Huracán lost 1-2 against Independiente Rivadavia

Atlético Tucumán hold a LDWDW record over their last five matches

Most recently the visitors secured a 2-0 victory against Central Cordoba SdE

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Huracán score an average of 1.1 goals and concede 0.9 goals per match this season

At home Huracán concede just 0.73 goals per match on average

Atlético Tucumán average 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded on their travels

The visitors hold a season goal difference of minus 5

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in total

Atlético Tucumán scored 5 goals while Huracán scored 3

The last meeting on February 1, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Huracán are still searching for their first victory against this opponent

Key Players

Jordy Caicedo has scored 9 goals in 19 appearances for the home team this season

Leonardo Gil impresses in midfield with rising form and 2 assists

For the visitors Leandro Díaz is the top threat with 7 goals

Franco Nicola has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Hernán Galíndez plays in goal for Huracán and has recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Luis Ingolotti guards the net for the visitors and has achieved 7 clean sheets so far

Ingolotti has also registered 1 assist this season

Influences

An average of 2.2 goals per match are scored on the natural grass of Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Huracán benefit from a solid home defense with only 8 goals conceded in 11 matches

Atlético Tucumán managed only 2 clean sheets in 10 away matches

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