Match report →
Aldosivi – Gimnasia La Plata1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Aldosivi
0.91
Total xG
2.07
Gimnasia La Plata
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aldosivi | Gimnasia La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Tomás Fernández on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Marcelo Torres not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table and form difference: Sixth-placed Gimnasia La Plata (26 points) faces winless bottom-placed Aldosivi (8 points)
- Both teams averaged very counter-oriented play in recent matches with around 35% possession and under 4 shots on target
- Aldosivi is scoring more frequently recently (0.8) compared to their season average (0.5) while Gimnasia's goal production stalls at 1.0
Risks
- Tomás Fernández is missing for Aldosivi, leaving only 61% of the usual goal threat available
- Gimnasia La Plata travels without top goalscorer Marcelo Torres, which could weaken the visitors' offensive power
- The low-scoring venue record at Estadio José María Minella with an average of only 1.2 goals per game poses a risk of a low-scoring match
All probabilities
Result
Aldosivi27%
Draw33%
Gimnasia La Plata40%
Double chance
Aldosivi or draw60%
Gimnasia La Plata or draw73%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
13%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Aldosivi with Rodrigo González: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata with Franco Torres: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Aldosivi: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 6 games with xG data)
Lineups
Aldosivi 3-4-2-1 · Gimnasia La Plata 4-2-3-1
Aldosivi
- 23 I. Chicco
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 2 L. Sigali
- 32 J. Pombo
- 4 R. González
- 22 A. Sosa
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 29 A. Vombergar
- 21 M. Godoy
- 9 N. Cordero
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 18 M. Seoane
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 5 J. Miramon
- 8 I. Fernández
- 11 J. Merlo
- 29 A. Auzmendi
Substitutes
- 42 L. Acosta
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 27 T. Fernández
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 5 N. Linares
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 24 F. Anso
- 14 E. López
- 18 A. Chávez
- 10 O. Gaitán
- 19 R. Colazo
- 17 L. Janson
- 16 A. Max
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 37 J. Langa
- 36 L. Lamella
- 43 M. Ojeda
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