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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Aldosivi - Gimnasia La Plata

08/02/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Aldosivi
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Gimnasia La Plata
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
ALDGLP

Aldosivi

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.28
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average)
+0.09
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap)
-0.08
TomĂĄs FernĂĄndez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.5 goals/match)

Gimnasia La Plata

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Marcelo Torres not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Aldosivi with Rodrigo GonzĂĄlez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Gimnasia La Plata with Franco Torres: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Gimnasia La Plata: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Aldosivi: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 6 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Table and form difference: Sixth-placed Gimnasia La Plata (26 points) faces winless bottom-placed Aldosivi (8 points)
  • Both teams averaged very counter-oriented play in recent matches with around 35% possession and under 4 shots on target
  • Aldosivi is scoring more frequently recently (0.8) compared to their season average (0.5) while Gimnasia's goal production stalls at 1.0
Risk Factors
  • TomĂĄs FernĂĄndez is missing for Aldosivi, leaving only 61% of the usual goal threat available
  • Gimnasia La Plata travels without top goalscorer Marcelo Torres, which could weaken the visitors' offensive power
  • The low-scoring venue record at Estadio JosĂ© MarĂ­a Minella with an average of only 1.2 goals per game poses a risk of a low-scoring match
Overview

Aldosivi (14th place, 8 points) host Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points) at the Estadio José María Minella

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 2, 2026, 7:30 PM

The hosts are still completely winless this season

Gimnasia La Plata enter this matchup as favorites

Form

Aldosivi are still waiting for their first win after a recent DLDDL form

Gimnasia La Plata are in better shape with a WWLLW run in recent matches

Aldosivi with 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses

Gimnasia La Plata with 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Aldosivi have a weak attack with only 7 goals in 18 games (Avg 0.39)

Gimnasia La Plata scored 22 goals (Avg 1.10) in 20 games

Aldosivi conceded only 5 goals in 8 home matches (Avg 0.62)

The visitors concede an average of 1.44 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

Gimnasia La Plata won that encounter 3-1 on February 2, 2026

The historical record favors the away side

Key Players

For Aldosivi, attacker NicolĂĄs Cordero (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.00) is the main focus

Defender NicolĂĄs Zalazar is also important with an average rating of 7.05

Gimnasia relies on midfielder NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto (3 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.21)

Not in the lineup for the away team is Marcelo Torres (8 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Ignacio Chicco guards the goal for Aldosivi with 3 appearances and an avg rating of 7.18

Nelson InsfrĂĄn plays for Gimnasia with 18 appearances and an avg rating of 6.98

The defenses kept 4 (Aldosivi) and 7 (Gimnasia) clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio José María Minella

Aldosivi's home advantage shows in a stable defense with only 0.62 goals conceded per home game

The venue is historically very low-scoring, averaging just 1.2 goals per game

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