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Vélez Sarsfield – Independiente1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vélez Sarsfield
1.54
Total xG
2.83
Independiente
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vélez Sarsfield | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.65 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Florián Monzón not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tobías Andrada not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Vélez scores more recently (1.40) than their season average, while Independiente's scoring has stalled (1.20)
- Tactical dominance: Vélez averaged 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Home vs away mismatch: Vélez concedes only 0.78 goals at home, while Independiente concedes 1.75 goals away
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Independiente has only 3 days of rest compared to 4 days for Vélez
- Defensive absence: J. Gordon is out injured for Vélez
- Away vulnerability: Independiente concedes a high average of 1.75 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Vélez Sarsfield42%
Draw28%
Independiente30%
Double chance
Vélez Sarsfield or draw70%
Independiente or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Vélez Sarsfield with Dilan Godoy: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 · Independiente 4-2-3-1
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 15 D. Godoy
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 29 L. Godoy
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 26 K. Lomónaco
- 22 F. Zavala
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 28 M. Gutiérrez
- 7 S. Montiel
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 9 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
Substitutes
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 34 ?. Busso
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 2 E. Mammana
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 37 J. Policella
- 33 F. Villalba
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 3 J. De Irastorza
- 1 J. Blázquez
- 8 M. Meza
- 18 F. Valdez
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 21 F. Closter
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 20 F. Cruz
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