🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Independiente

08/03/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Independiente
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VSIND

Vélez Sarsfield

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.65
Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Florián Monzón not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Tobías Andrada not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Independiente

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Independiente: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Vélez Sarsfield with Dilan Godoy: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Vélez Sarsfield: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

28%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Vélez scores more recently (1.40) than their season average, while Independiente's scoring has stalled (1.20)
  • Tactical dominance: Vélez averaged 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Home vs away mismatch: Vélez concedes only 0.78 goals at home, while Independiente concedes 1.75 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Independiente has only 3 days of rest compared to 4 days for Vélez
  • Defensive absence: J. Gordon is out injured for Vélez
  • Away vulnerability: Independiente concedes a high average of 1.75 goals per away game
Overview

Vélez Sarsfield hosts Independiente at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 3, 2026, 11:00 PM

Vélez sits in 3rd place with 28 points

Independiente enters in 5th place with 24 points

Form

Vélez form: DDLWW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Independiente form: LWLWW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Vélez shows a stable trend, scoring more recently (1.40 goals) than their season average

Independiente's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.20 goals recently

Statistics

Vélez boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.74 goals per game

Independiente scores 1.47 goals on average but concedes 1.21

Both teams scored in 12 of Independiente's 19 matches

Head-to-Head

Even record with 4 head-to-head matches

Both teams won 1 match each, alongside 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on January 31, 2026

Key Players

Manuel Lanzini scored 4 goals this season with a 7.20 rating

Diego Valdés contributed 5 assists with a 7.06 rating

Gabriel Ávalos is the biggest threat for Independiente with 11 goals and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Tomás Marchiori starts in goal for Vélez with a 7.29 rating

Rodrigo Rey plays for Independiente with a 6.80 rating

Vélez kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Independiente kept 6

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Stadium stats show an average of 1.8 goals per match

Vélez benefits from home advantage, conceding only 0.78 goals per home game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.