Match report →
Platense – Talleres Córdoba0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Platense
1.02
Total xG
2.07
Talleres Córdoba
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Platense | Talleres Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| T. Nasif not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Matías Catalán not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical possession play: Platense dominated possession in recent matches, averaging 58% possession and 5.6 shots on target
- Slumping away offense: Talleres Córdoba's goal production has stalled recently, averaging only 0.5 goals per game
- Perfectly balanced matchup: The direct head-to-head record is completely even with 2 wins apiece and a 5-5 goal tally
Risks
- Missing offensive weapon: Key player T. Nasif is sidelined, leaving Platense with only 69% of their seasonal goal production available
- Defensive vulnerability away: Talleres Córdoba concedes an average of 1.12 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Platense33%
Draw34%
Talleres Córdoba34%
Double chance
Platense or draw66%
Talleres Córdoba or draw67%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
11%
1:0
11%
1:2
7%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Platense with Iván Gómez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Talleres Córdoba with Alex Vigo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Platense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Talleres Córdoba: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Platense 4-3-3 · Talleres Córdoba 3-4-3
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 25 J. Saborido
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 32 S. Quirós
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 26 P. Ferreira
- 18 B. Merlini
- 7 G. Mainero
- 43 N. Retamar
- 10 F. Zapiola
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 44 S. Fernández
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 5 M. Galarza
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
- 37 R. Lima Morais
Substitutes
- 33 J. Gauto
- 20 L. Giménez Alanda
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 17 F. Bussio
- 3 T. Silva
- 34 M. Mendia
- 27 S. Dalmasso
- 19 H. Bobadilla Cáceres
- 4 A. Lagos
- 5 I. Gómez
- 6 E. Raggio
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 49 V. Dávila
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 11 V. Depietri
- 10 G. Baroni
- 99 B. Barticciotto
- 28 A. Vigo
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
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