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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Central Cordoba SdE - San Lorenzo

08/04/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Central Cordoba SdE
0.9
Total xG
1.7
San Lorenzo
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

20%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

13%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
CCSSL

Central Cordoba SdE

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.42
Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.38
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.7 season average)
+0.16
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Ezequiel Naya on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap)
+0.02
Facundo Gulli on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Central Cordoba SdE with AgustĂ­n Quiroga: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    San Lorenzo: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 3
    San Lorenzo with Gregorio RodrĂ­guez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Central Cordoba SdE: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

37%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

52%

Under 1.5

48%

Over 2.5

24%

Under 2.5

76%

Over 3.5

9%

Under 3.5

91%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • Defensive strength of the visitors: San Lorenzo conceded only 0.89 goals per match on average this season
  • Tactical discrepancy: San Lorenzo averaged 5.4 shots on target recently, compared to just 3.0 for the hosts
  • Balanced expectations: The mathematical model predicts a high probability of a draw at 38%
Risk Factors
  • Absence of starting goalkeeper A. Aguerre for the home side
  • San Lorenzo has to cope with several missing players, including C. Insaurralde and E. Herrera
  • Offensive struggles for the hosts, who average only 0.61 goals per match
Overview

Central Cordoba SdE (13th place, 16 points) vs San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points)

Match on August 4, 2026, 12:15 AM at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Mid-table battle in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Form

Home form: WDLLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Away form: WLDLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Central Cordoba scores an average of 0.61 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per match

San Lorenzo scores an average of 0.89 goals and concedes 0.89 goals per match

The visitors have kept 10 clean sheets this season

An average of 3.4 goals are scored at this venue

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in total

1 win for Central Cordoba SdE and 2 wins for San Lorenzo

Goal difference of 2 to 3 from the hosts' perspective

The last encounter ended 1-0 in favor of San Lorenzo

Key Players

Michael Santos (4 goals, 2 assists, 6.93 rating)

Diego Barrera (3 goals, 0 assists, 6.71 rating)

Alejandro Maciel (1 goal, 1 assist, 6.99 rating)

Alexis Cuello (4 goals, 3 assists, 6.96 rating)

Rodrigo Auzmendi (5 goals, 0 assists, 7.00 rating)

MatĂ­as Reali (0 goals, 1 assist, 6.82 rating)

Goalkeepers

Javier Vallejos starts in goal for Central Cordoba with a season rating of 6.61

Orlando Gill guards the goal for San Lorenzo with an impressive average rating of 7.33

The visitors have kept 10 clean sheets this season compared to 6 for the hosts

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Central Cordoba averages 0.62 goals scored and 0.69 conceded at home

San Lorenzo averages 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded away from home

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