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Central Cordoba SdE – San Lorenzo1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Central Cordoba SdE
0.87
Total xG
1.70
San Lorenzo
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Central Cordoba SdE | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.42 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.7 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.02 | |
| Ezequiel Naya on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Facundo Gulli on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive strength of the visitors: San Lorenzo conceded only 0.89 goals per match on average this season
- Tactical discrepancy: San Lorenzo averaged 5.4 shots on target recently, compared to just 3.0 for the hosts
- Balanced expectations: The mathematical model predicts a high probability of a draw at 38%
Risks
- Absence of starting goalkeeper A. Aguerre for the home side
- San Lorenzo has to cope with several missing players, including C. Insaurralde and E. Herrera
- Offensive struggles for the hosts, who average only 0.61 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Central Cordoba SdE32%
Draw37%
San Lorenzo30%
Double chance
Central Cordoba SdE or draw70%
San Lorenzo or draw68%
No draw63%
Goals
Over 1.552%
Under 1.548%
Over 2.524%
Under 2.576%
Over 3.59%
Under 3.591%
Both teams score
Yes35%
No66%
Most likely scores
0:0
20%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
13%
2:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE with Agustín Quiroga: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- San Lorenzo: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- San Lorenzo with Gregorio Rodríguez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Central Cordoba SdE: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Central Cordoba SdE 4-2-3-1 · San Lorenzo 4-4-2
Central Cordoba SdE
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 33 A. Moyano
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 22 M. Vera
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 7 D. Barrera
- 27 M. Santos Rosadilla
San Lorenzo
- 12 O. Gill
- 30 O. Arias
- 19 E. Amor
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 22 J. Álvarez
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 11 M. Reali
- 29 R. Auzmendi
- 9 A. Cuello
Substitutes
- 19 E. Naya
- 37 A. Daian Laprida
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 5 T. Cravero
- 9 L. Varaldo
- 30 F. Ariel Rodriguez Salomon
- 47 M. Cuitiño
- 12 M. Álvarez
- 5 I. Perruzzi Ambrosini
- 10 F. Gulli
- 18 D. Herazo Moreno
- 15 M. Cardillo
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 21 G. Del Prete
- 62 G. Alassia
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