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Talleres Córdoba – Lanús0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.06
Total xG
1.86
Lanús
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Lucas Besozzi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yoshan Valois on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home advantage and model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Talleres Córdoba with a 40% win probability and projects 1.06 expected goals
- Offensive trends in advanced stats: Talleres Córdoba score consistently at around 1.2 goals per game while Lanús's goal production has stalled at 0.5 recently
- Tactical control: Talleres Córdoba controlled play recently with an average of 56% possession and 4.2 shots on target
Risks
- Historical disadvantage: Talleres Córdoba have never beaten Lanús in their 4 direct encounters
- Absent squad depth: Lanús are missing Lucas Besozzi and Yoshan Valois from the starting lineup
- Away vulnerability: Lanús concede an average of 1.4 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba40%
Draw35%
Lanús25%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw75%
Lanús or draw60%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
1:0
15%
0:1
11%
2:0
9%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús with Agustín Cardozo: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Talleres Córdoba with Alexandro Maidana: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Lanús: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Lanús: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 3-4-3 · Lanús 4-2-3-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 44 S. Fernández
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 5 M. Galarza
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
- 37 R. Lima Morais
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 6 S. Marcich
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 11 E. Salvio
- 23 R. Carrera
- 25 D. Aquino
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Substitutes
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 49 V. Dávila
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 11 V. Depietri
- 10 G. Baroni
- 99 B. Barticciotto
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
- 35 G. Nuccio
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 27 F. Sánchez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 9 W. Bou
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 2 L. Romero
- 38 B. Acosta
- 39 T. Laplace
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