Match report →
Independiente – Platense0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente
1.35
Total xG
2.54
Platense
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.69 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Nicolás Retamar not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 45% available) |
Key factors
- Weakened attack: Platense has only 45% of their usual goal threat available without Nicolás Retamar
- Head-to-head dominance: Independiente is unbeaten in the last 4 meetings (2 wins, 2 draws) with a 5:1 goal difference
- Home strength vs away crisis: Platense is winless in 5 matches, while Independiente concedes only 0.82 goals per home game
Risks
- Independiente's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
- Platense's goal production is also stalling recently, averaging 0.6 goals compared to their seasonal average of 0.93
- Independiente averaged only 3.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Independiente39%
Draw30%
Platense31%
Double chance
Independiente or draw69%
Platense or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Platense with Leonardo Heredia: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Platense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Independiente 4-2-3-1 · Platense 4-2-3-1
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 26 K. Lomónaco
- 22 F. Zavala
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 28 M. Gutiérrez
- 7 S. Montiel
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 9 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 25 J. Saborido
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 3 T. Silva
- 26 P. Ferreira
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 7 G. Mainero
- 23 L. Heredia
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 20 L. Giménez Alanda
Substitutes
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 3 J. De Irastorza
- 15 I. Machuca
- 8 M. Meza
- 18 F. Valdez
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 21 F. Closter
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 38 L. Hugo Barros Ayala
- 33 J. Gauto
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 17 F. Bussio
- 34 M. Mendia
- 27 S. Dalmasso
- 19 H. Bobadilla Cáceres
- 18 B. Merlini
- 32 S. Quirós
- 4 A. Lagos
- 43 N. Retamar
- 16 G. Togni
- 11 N. López Alonso
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