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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente - Platense

08/09/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Independiente
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Platense
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
INDPLA

Independiente

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.02

Platense

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.69
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.31
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.09
NicolĂĄs Retamar not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 45% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Platense with Leonardo Heredia: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Platense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

30%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Weakened attack: Platense has only 45% of their usual goal threat available without NicolĂĄs Retamar
  • Head-to-head dominance: Independiente is unbeaten in the last 4 meetings (2 wins, 2 draws) with a 5:1 goal difference
  • Home strength vs away crisis: Platense is winless in 5 matches, while Independiente concedes only 0.82 goals per home game
Risk Factors
  • Independiente's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
  • Platense's goal production is also stalling recently, averaging 0.6 goals compared to their seasonal average of 0.93
  • Independiente averaged only 3.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
Overview

Independiente (5th, 24 points) host Platense (12th, 16 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on August 9, 2026, 2:30 AM

Home team holds a slight advantage

Form

Independiente is in WLWWL form (3 wins, 2 losses)

Platense travels with LLDLL form (1 draw, 4 losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Independiente averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded

Platense averages only 0.68 goals scored per match

Visitors failed to score in 11 matches this season

Home defense concedes just 0.82 goals per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Independiente has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses

Goal difference is 5:1 in favor of the home team

Key Players

Gabriel Ávalos has 11 goals and 5 assists (Rating 7.39)

MatĂ­as Abaldo has 5 goals and 1 assist (Rating 6.73)

Santiago Montiel scored 3 goals and 2 assists

Franco Zapiola has 2 goals (Rating 7.08)

Ignacio VĂĄzquez has 1 goal (Rating 6.98)

Guido Mainero has an average rating of 6.63

Goalkeepers

Rodrigo Rey is in goal (Rating 6.79, 6 clean sheets)

Juan Pablo Cozzani guards the visitors' goal (Rating 6.42, 6 clean sheets)

Influences

Estadio Libertadores de América averages 3.4 goals per game

Independiente concedes just 0.82 goals per home match

Platense kept 4 clean sheets in away games on grass

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