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San Lorenzo – Huracán0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
San Lorenzo
1.36
Total xG
2.61
Huracán
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Lorenzo | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Emmanuel Ojeda not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| César Ibáñez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with a 38% probability for a home win and a 33% probability for an away win
- Huracán averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to San Lorenzo's 4.6
- San Lorenzo's goal production has stalled recently at 0.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.1
Risks
- Huracán are missing Emmanuel Ojeda and César Ibáñez, leaving only 74% of their seasonal assists available
- San Lorenzo is in a weak phase with 3 defeats from their last 5 matches
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions and duel statistics from recent matches
All probabilities
Result
San Lorenzo38%
Draw30%
Huracán32%
Double chance
San Lorenzo or draw68%
Huracán or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Huracán with Fabio Pereyra: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- San Lorenzo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- San Lorenzo with Gregorio Rodríguez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.2 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
- Huracán: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Huracán: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
San Lorenzo 5-3-2 · Huracán 4-3-3
San Lorenzo
- 12 O. Gill
- 54 N. Blanco
- 19 E. Amor
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 10 F. Gulli
- 27 M. Río
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 9 A. Cuello
- 29 R. Auzmendi
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 21 H. Nervo
- 3 L. Carrizo
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 8 L. Gil
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Substitutes
- 22 J. Álvarez
- 5 I. Perruzzi Ambrosini
- 18 D. Herazo Moreno
- 11 M. Reali
- 15 M. Cardillo
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 21 G. Del Prete
- 4 F. Vera
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 14 S. Martínez
- 34 I. Campo
- 32 S. Meza
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 19 L. Lescano
- 23 I. Pussetto
- 41 L. Mora
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 48 S. Raynelli
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