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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Tigre - River Plate

08/08/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Tigre
1.0
Total xG
2.3
River Plate
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
TIGRP

Tigre

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Full strength squad available

River Plate

Attack strength (1.54x league average)
+0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.22
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.02
Facundo Colidio not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Marcos Acuña not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigre with Jabes Saralegui: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    River Plate with AnĂ­bal Moreno: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Tigre: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    River Plate: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

32%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • River Plate plays without Facundo Colidio and Marcos Acuña which reduces their starting XI strength to 76%
  • Tigre is in more stable form while River Plate is struggling with four consecutive defeats
  • Tigre recently averaged 4.0 shots on target with 52% possession while River Plate averaged 4.0 shots on target with 66% possession
Risk Factors
  • Tigre has a severe rest disadvantage with only 2 days of break compared to River Plate's 6 days
  • Both teams have struggled offensively in recent games averaging 1.0 goals for Tigre and 0.6 goals for River Plate compared to their season averages
  • Limited data availability due to missing weather information in the dataset
Overview

Tigre hosts River Plate at Estadio José Dellagiovanna

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 8, 2026, 10:00 PM

Second-place River Plate visits tenth-place Tigre

River Plate aims for the top of the table while Tigre seeks to secure a mid-table spot

Form

Tigre has a form of LDLWD

Their last match ended in a 0-0 draw against Belgrano

River Plate travels with a weak form of WLLLL

The visitors have suffered four consecutive defeats

Statistics

Tigre scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 0.89 goals per game

River Plate averages 1.26 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded this season

Tigre kept 5 clean sheets so far this season

River Plate recorded 9 clean sheets in their campaign

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with one win for each team

Tigre won the last direct encounter away with a clear 4-1 scoreline

No draws have been recorded in their two meetings so far

Key Players

Ignacio Russo scored 5 goals and provided 3 assists

Gonzalo MartĂ­nez shows rising form with 3 goals this season

Alan Barrionuevo stands out as a defender with a 7.20 rating

Gonzalo Montiel leads his team with 4 goals this season

TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn recorded 3 goals and 2 assists in the current campaign

AnĂ­bal Moreno contributed 3 assists in midfield

Goalkeepers

Felipe Zenobio holds a stable season rating of 6.89

Tigre has recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Santiago BeltrĂĄn shows declining form with a 6.54 rating in recent matches

River Plate has kept 9 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Estadio José Dellagiovanna

Stadium history shows a low-scoring trend averaging 1.6 goals per game

Tigre concedes only 0.8 goals on average at home

River Plate concedes an average of just 0.83 goals away from home

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