Match report →
Tigre – River Plate1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tigre
1.04
Total xG
2.26
River Plate
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigre | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.37 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Facundo Colidio not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marcos Acuña not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- River Plate plays without Facundo Colidio and Marcos Acuña which reduces their starting XI strength to 76%
- Tigre is in more stable form while River Plate is struggling with four consecutive defeats
- Tigre recently averaged 4.0 shots on target with 52% possession while River Plate averaged 4.0 shots on target with 66% possession
Risks
- Tigre has a severe rest disadvantage with only 2 days of break compared to River Plate's 6 days
- Both teams have struggled offensively in recent games averaging 1.0 goals for Tigre and 0.6 goals for River Plate compared to their season averages
- Limited data availability due to missing weather information in the dataset
All probabilities
Result
Tigre30%
Draw32%
River Plate38%
Double chance
Tigre or draw62%
River Plate or draw70%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigre with Jabes Saralegui: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- River Plate with Aníbal Moreno: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Tigre: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- River Plate: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Tigre 4-4-1-1 · River Plate 4-2-3-1
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 2 J. Laso
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 3 N. Banegas
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 8 M. Garay
- 30 J. Elías
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 28 G. Martínez
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 3 F. Ortega
- 6 A. Moreno
- 50 T. Andrada
- 35 J. Freitas
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 26 T. Galván
- 18 L. Beltrán
Substitutes
- 16 N. Dubersarsky
- 21 S. Medina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 11 T. Serrago
- 32 J. Villalba
- 27 S. González
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 26 L. Morales
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 15 F. Vera
- 31 F. González
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. González Apud
- 43 V. Lucero
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →