Match report →
Banfield – Belgrano0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Banfield
1.43
Total xG
2.65
Belgrano
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Banfield | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.70 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.34 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 24% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Nicolás Fernández not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Adrián Sánchez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Belgrano's absences: With Nicolás Fernández (5 goals, 4 assists) and Adrián Sánchez (1 goal, 1 assist) missing, the visitors lack two key squad members
- Head-to-head advantage: Belgrano remains unbeaten in 4 historical meetings against Banfield, recording 2 wins and 2 draws
- Offensive approach: Banfield averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches while maintaining a counter-oriented style
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Belgrano has had a significantly shorter recovery time with only 4 days since their last match, compared to Banfield's 9 days
- Compact defense: Belgrano concedes an average of only 0.78 goals per game this season, presenting a highly stable defensive unit
All probabilities
Result
Banfield41%
Draw29%
Belgrano30%
Double chance
Banfield or draw70%
Belgrano or draw59%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Banfield: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Belgrano with A. Falcón: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)
- Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')
Lineups
Banfield 3-4-1-2 · Belgrano 4-2-3-1
Banfield
- 1 F. Sanguinetti
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 34 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 27 L. Abraham
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 17 T. Perrotta
- 9 B. Sepúlveda
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 14 L. Morales
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 9 L. Passerini
Substitutes
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 33 N. Moreno Betancur
- 8 L. Ríos
- 10 L. Gómez
- 7 L. Piñero
- 25 G. Santilli
- 18 F. Medina
- 21 L. Villegas
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 15 R. Tulián
- 4 Agustín Griguol
- 29 M. Ortiz
- 19 S. Gatti
- 58 A. Bono
- 59 J. Flandes
- 66 J. Nuñez
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