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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Banfield - Belgrano

08/10/2026, 10:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Banfield
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Belgrano
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BANBEL

Banfield

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.70
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.34
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.11
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
24% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Belgrano

Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.04
NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
AdriĂĄn SĂĄnchez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Banfield: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Belgrano with A. FalcĂłn: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Belgrano: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)

  • 5
    Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

29%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Belgrano's absences: With NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez (5 goals, 4 assists) and AdriĂĄn SĂĄnchez (1 goal, 1 assist) missing, the visitors lack two key squad members
  • Head-to-head advantage: Belgrano remains unbeaten in 4 historical meetings against Banfield, recording 2 wins and 2 draws
  • Offensive approach: Banfield averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches while maintaining a counter-oriented style
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Belgrano has had a significantly shorter recovery time with only 4 days since their last match, compared to Banfield's 9 days
  • Compact defense: Belgrano concedes an average of only 0.78 goals per game this season, presenting a highly stable defensive unit
Overview

Banfield (12th place, 18 points) host Belgrano (5th place, 26 points) at the Estadio Florencio Sola

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 10, 2026, 11:00 PM

Belgrano enters the match in the upper third of the table, while Banfield needs points from mid-table

Form

Both teams display a balanced run of form recently

Banfield recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Belgrano has an identical record with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Form-String Banfield: DWLWD

Form-String Belgrano: DWWLD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Banfield scores an average of 1.05 goals and concedes 1.16 goals per match this season

Their home defense is strong, conceding only 0.67 goals on average

Belgrano has a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.78 goals per game

On the road, Belgrano averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

Belgrano dominates the recent head-to-head history

Out of 4 matches, Belgrano won 2 and 2 ended in a draw

Banfield is still searching for their first victory against Belgrano

The last meeting on February 8, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Belgrano

Key Players

Tiziano Perrota is Banfield's top scorer with 6 goals this season

Santiago LĂłpez GarcĂ­a leads the midfield with 2 goals and 4 assists

For Belgrano, Lucas ZelarayĂĄn stands out with 4 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Facundo Sanguinetti guards Banfield's goal and kept 5 clean sheets this season

Thiago Cardozo starts for Belgrano and has recorded an impressive 11 clean sheets in 22 appearances

Both keepers boast solid average ratings above 7.0

Influences

Estadio Florencio Sola averages 2.2 total goals per game

Banfield's home advantage is highlighted by their strong home defense

Weather data is not available for this analysis

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