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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Instituto - Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

08/09/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Instituto
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

13%

2:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
INSGYEM

Instituto

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.25
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.40
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.39
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.08
Ignacio Sabatini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Instituto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Instituto with MatĂ­as Gallardo: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Instituto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

29%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Home and away discrepancy: While Instituto concedes only avg 0.75 goals at home, Gimnasia allows an extremely vulnerable average of 2.50 goals away
  • Tactical offensive strength: Instituto recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match and scores more frequently (1.2) than their season average of 1.1
  • Mathematical favorite: The data-driven prediction calculates a solid 56% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Historical setback: The only previous direct duel was won 0:1 by Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
  • Low scoring probability: With a calculated 62% probability for under 2.5 goals, a single mistake could decide the match
Overview

Instituto (9th place, 21 points) hosts Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (11th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 9, 2026, 12:30 AM

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

Instituto form: DWLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza form: LWWLW

Recently 3 wins and 2 losses

Statistics

Instituto scores avg 1.05 goals and concedes avg 1.00 goals per match

At home, they only concede avg 0.75 goals

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores avg 0.89 goals and concedes avg 1.21 goals

Away from home, the visitors concede avg 2.50 goals

Head-to-Head

1 head-to-head match in history

1 away win for the visiting team

The last duel ended 0:1 for the away team on February 9, 2026

Key Players

Key players for the home team: Diego Sosa (defender, 1 goal, 4 assists), Alex Luna (midfielder, 5 goals, 1 assist), and Giuliano Cerato (defender, 3 goals, 1 assist)

Key players for the away team: Facundo Lencioni (attacker, 2 goals, 6 assists), Agustín Módica (attacker, 7 goals), and Ezequiel Muñoz (defender, 2 goals)

Goalkeepers

Marcos Ledesma is in goal for Instituto with 3 appearances this season

Cesar Rigamonti guards the goal for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with 17 season appearances

Instituto records a total of 5 clean sheets, while the visitors have 6

Influences

The match is played on grass

Venue history shows an average of 3.2 goals per game in recent matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of those matches

Instituto has a solid home record, conceding only 0.75 goals per home game

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