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Instituto – Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Instituto
1.52
Total xG
2.21
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Instituto | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Ignacio Sabatini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home and away discrepancy: While Instituto concedes only avg 0.75 goals at home, Gimnasia allows an extremely vulnerable average of 2.50 goals away
- Tactical offensive strength: Instituto recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match and scores more frequently (1.2) than their season average of 1.1
- Mathematical favorite: The data-driven prediction calculates a solid 56% probability for a home win
Risks
- Historical setback: The only previous direct duel was won 0:1 by Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- Low scoring probability: With a calculated 62% probability for under 2.5 goals, a single mistake could decide the match
All probabilities
Result
Instituto56%
Draw29%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza15%
Double chance
Instituto or draw85%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw44%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
1:1
13%
2:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Instituto with Matías Gallardo: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Instituto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Instituto 3-4-2-1 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 5-3-2
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 10 A. Luna
- 17 M. Tissera
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 42 L. Carrera
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 16 G. Guiffrey
- 3 M. Recalde
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 21 F. Antonini
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 9 A. Módica
- 7 L. Cingolani
Substitutes
- 7 N. Guerra
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 19 G. Lodico
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 23 J. Meli
- 90 P. Baster
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 32 L. Paredes
- 30 E. Fernández
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 28 T. O'Connor
- 10 N. Romano Di Marco
- 33 O. Andrada
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 5 N. Barboza
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 41 G. Patritti
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