Match report →
Rosario Central – Aldosivi2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Rosario Central
1.75
Total xG
2.31
Aldosivi
0.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rosario Central | Aldosivi |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +0.83 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Jáminton Campaz on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Cordero on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 68% of goal output missing (only 62% available) |
Key factors
- Strong home record: Rosario Central concedes an average of only 0.75 goals at home
- Tactical advantage: Rosario Central recently controlled play with an average of 51.2% possession
- Extreme offensive drought: Aldosivi scores an average of only 0.42 goals per game this season
Risks
- Nicolás Cordero is missing for Aldosivi, leaving only 63% of seasonal goal-scoring threat available
- Away weakness: Aldosivi concedes an average of 1.78 goals per away game this season
- Struggling goal production: Rosario Central currently averages 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
All probabilities
Result
Rosario Central65%
Draw25%
Aldosivi10%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw90%
Aldosivi or draw35%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
1:0
16%
2:0
15%
0:0
11%
1:1
11%
3:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi with Agustín Palavecino: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Rosario Central with Facundo Mallo: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Rosario Central: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Aldosivi 4-4-2
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 42 E. Verón
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 33 A. Soto
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 18 J. Fernández
- 22 E. Copetti
Aldosivi
- 42 L. Acosta
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 2 L. Sigali
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 13 B. Cufré
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 22 A. Sosa
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 21 M. Godoy
- 29 A. Vombergar
- 27 T. Fernández
Substitutes
- 8 J. Campaz
- 3 A. Sández
- 1 A. Werner
- 28 G. Fernández
- 31 F. Navarro
- 39 F. Oviedo
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 7 M. Cabrera
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 36 A. Guich
- 23 I. Chicco
- 9 N. Cordero
- 4 R. González
- 5 N. Linares
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 24 F. Anso
- 14 E. López
- 32 J. Pombo
- 18 A. Chávez
- 10 O. Gaitán
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