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Argentinos Juniors – Racing Club2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Argentinos Juniors
1.37
Total xG
2.26
Racing Club
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentinos Juniors | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.03 | |
| Facundo Jainikoski on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tomás Conechny on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matías Zaracho not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Santiago Sosa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 55% available) |
Key factors
- Form and upward trend: Argentinos Juniors are unbeaten in 5 matches and currently score more frequently than their seasonal average
- Tactical dominance of the hosts: Argentinos Juniors averaged 6.0 shots on target with 62% possession in recent matches
- Strong home defense: Argentinos Juniors conceded an average of only 0.38 goals per game in their own stadium this season
Risks
- Tomás Conechny, Matías Zaracho, and Santiago Sosa are missing for the visitors, leaving only 56% of their usual starting strength available
- Low-scoring venue history: Matches at the Estadio Diego Armando Maradona averaged only 2.2 goals recently
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Argentinos Juniors46%
Draw31%
Racing Club23%
Double chance
Argentinos Juniors or draw77%
Racing Club or draw54%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Racing Club: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Racing Club with Baltasar Rodríguez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Argentinos Juniors with Federico Fattori: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Argentinos Juniors 4-3-1-2 · Racing Club 4-3-1-2
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 10 A. Lescano
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 9 G. Verón
- 27 T. Molina
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 3 M. Di Cesare
- 6 F. Rojo
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 46 A. Tello
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 32 L. Díaz
- 9 A. Martínez
Substitutes
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 7 I. Morales Bravo
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 21 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 47 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 29 E. Viveros Mereles
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 13 S. Gianini
- 37 T. Bautista Gómez
- 18 L. Espino García
- 28 S. Solari
- 17 T. Conechny
- 43 G. Escudero
- 34 T. Rubio
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 23 N. Colombo
- 22 E. Torres
- 15 G. Martirena
- 37 S. Aguirre
- 39 B. Pérez
- 44 A. Yegros
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