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Boca Juniors – Vélez Sarsfield1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Boca Juniors
1.56
Total xG
2.53
Vélez Sarsfield
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Boca Juniors | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.67 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Florián Monzón not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Boca Juniors averaged an impressive 67.2% possession and 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive strength: Vélez Sarsfield allowed an average of just 0.7 goals per match during the current season
- Form gap: Vélez Sarsfield enter on a three-game winning streak while Boca lost two of their last five matches
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Boca Juniors had only 3 days of rest before this crucial fixture
- Missing threat: Florián Monzón is not named in the visitors' lineup despite scoring 6 goals this season
- Limited weather data available for this match
All probabilities
Result
Boca Juniors50%
Draw29%
Vélez Sarsfield22%
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw78%
Vélez Sarsfield or draw50%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Boca Juniors with Leandro Paredes: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Boca Juniors: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield with Florián Monzón: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Boca Juniors 4-3-3 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 32 A. Costa
- 3 L. Blanco
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 5 L. Paredes
- 18 M. Delgado
- 19 L. Flores
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 10 T. Aranda
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 2 E. Mammana
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 15 D. Godoy
Substitutes
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 20 A. Velasco
- 9 M. Giménez
- 27 M. Braida
- 23 C. Rey Domenech
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 4 J. Figal
- 12 L. Brey
- 21 K. Zenon
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 34 ?. Busso
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 16 L. Magallán
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 33 T. Villalba
- 37 J. Policella
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