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Defensa y Justicia – Newell's Old Boys2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Defensa y Justicia
1.15
Total xG
2.03
Newell's Old Boys
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Defensa y Justicia | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.52 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.02 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Matías Cóccaro not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Walter Núñez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Defensa y Justicia recently controlled possession, averaging 61% and recording 5.0 shots on target per match
- Away weakness: Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Squad impact: Key players Matías Cóccaro and Walter Núñez are missing from the visitors' starting lineup
Risks
- Struggling offense: Defensa y Justicia's goalscoring has stalled recently, averaging only 0.8 goals
- Defensive absences: Newell's Old Boys are missing O. Salomón, M. Esponda, and A. Montero
- Defensive fragility: The hosts concede an average of 1.37 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Defensa y Justicia40%
Draw34%
Newell's Old Boys26%
Double chance
Defensa y Justicia or draw74%
Newell's Old Boys or draw60%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Defensa y Justicia with César Pérez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Newell's Old Boys: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Defensa y Justicia: 72% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1 · Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 16 A. Portillo
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 17 A. Hausch
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 28 J. Russo
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 39 L.Rios
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
Substitutes
- 26 J. Lucco
- 36 L. Amade
- 5 J. López
- 2 E. Lucero
- 7 T. Pérez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 27 D. Blanco
- 40 M. Rodríguez
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 44 Máximo Jonás Cabrera
- 45 T. Martínez
- 27 L. Gómez
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 26 R. Herrera
- 2 I. Glavinovich
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 3 M. Luciano
- 10 V. Acuña
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 18 M. García
- 24 F. Escobar
- 15 A. Soñora
- 35 B. Benedetto
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