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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Deportivo Riestra - Estudiantes

08/08/2026, 05:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Deportivo Riestra
0.8
Total xG
1.7
Estudiantes
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

0:1

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
DREST

Deportivo Riestra

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.43
Rising form (1.5 vs 0.6 season average)
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap)
-0.13
Strong home record (1 vs 0.6 goals/match)

Estudiantes

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap)
+0.06
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Tiago Palacios not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Guido Carrillo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Alexis Castro not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
JoaquĂ­n Tobio Burgos not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Ezequiel Piovi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
TomĂĄs Palacios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 37% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo Riestra with Facundo Miño: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Estudiantes with Ramiro Funes Mori: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

37%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

25%

Under 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact with six key players missing for Estudiantes, leaving only 37% of their usual goal threat available
  • Opposing form trends: Riestra are scoring more recently (1.5) than their season average, while Estudiantes underperform their season average with 1.2 goals
  • Home defensive fortress: Deportivo Riestra have conceded an average of just 0.33 goals per home match this season
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes face a tight schedule with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Counter-oriented playing style of the hosts with a recent average of only 3.8 shots on target per match
  • Limited availability of weather data in the provided dataset
Overview

Deportivo Riestra (15th place, 11 points) host Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 8, 2026, 5:45 PM

League leaders Estudiantes travel as favorites to face relegation-threatened Riestra

Form

Home form in all competitions: WDWLL

Home form summary: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses

Away form in all competitions: WLLWL

Away form summary: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Riestra lost their last two matches, while Estudiantes seek stability after a recent defeat

Statistics

Riestra average 0.47 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded per match

Riestra are defensively strong at home, conceding just 0.33 goals per game

Estudiantes score an average of 1.1 goals and concede 0.55 per match

Matches at Riestra's home have generally been very low-scoring this season

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in history

No wins for Deportivo Riestra, 2 wins for Estudiantes with a goal record of 0:3

The last meeting on February 9, 2026 ended in a 0:1 away win for Estudiantes

Key Players

Antony Alonso scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 19 appearances

Ignacio Arce stands out in goal with an average rating of 7.22

Adolfo Gaich scored 3 goals in 10 games for his team

Goalkeepers

Ignacio Arce played 19 games in goal, achieving a strong rating of 7.22

Fabricio Iacovich impressed in his 7 appearances with a rating of 7.23

Both goalkeepers have high average ratings heading into this match

Influences

Deportivo Riestra's home advantage is defensive, conceding only 5 goals in 15 home matches

The match will be played on natural grass

Previous matches at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia averaged 2.0 goals

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