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Deportivo Riestra – Estudiantes2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Riestra
0.77
Total xG
1.75
Estudiantes
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Riestra | Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.43 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 0.6 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Tiago Palacios not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Guido Carrillo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexis Castro not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Tobio Burgos not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ezequiel Piovi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tomás Palacios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 64% of goal output missing (only 37% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1 vs 0.6 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Severe squad impact with six key players missing for Estudiantes, leaving only 37% of their usual goal threat available
- Opposing form trends: Riestra are scoring more recently (1.5) than their season average, while Estudiantes underperform their season average with 1.2 goals
- Home defensive fortress: Deportivo Riestra have conceded an average of just 0.33 goals per home match this season
Risks
- Estudiantes face a tight schedule with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Counter-oriented playing style of the hosts with a recent average of only 3.8 shots on target per match
- Limited availability of weather data in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Riestra26%
Draw37%
Estudiantes37%
Double chance
Deportivo Riestra or draw63%
Estudiantes or draw74%
No draw63%
Goals
Over 1.554%
Under 1.546%
Over 2.525%
Under 2.575%
Over 3.510%
Under 3.590%
Both teams score
Yes35%
No65%
Most likely scores
0:0
19%
0:1
15%
1:1
15%
1:0
12%
0:2
8%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo Riestra with Facundo Miño: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Estudiantes with Ramiro Funes Mori: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1 · Estudiantes 5-3-2
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 24 F. Miño
- 22 C. Paz
- 2 C. Quintana
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 8 M. Céliz
- 14 P. Monje
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 11 A. Díaz
Estudiantes
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 35 V. Pierani
- 4 S. Núñez
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 36 J. Pereyra
- 11 F. Farías
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 7 J. Sosa
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 19 A. Gaich
Substitutes
- 21 T. González
- 16 N. Watson
- 40 G. Obredor
- 32 G. Flores
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 27 J. Goitía
- 13 R. Gallo
- 9 G. Benegas
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 3 E. Tovo
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 24 T. Palacios
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 12 R. Borzone
- 10 T. Palacios
- 27 L. Alario
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 22 A. Castro
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 21 L. Piovi
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 20 E. Meza
- 52 B. Kociubinski
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