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Independiente Rivadavia – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente Rivadavia
2.14
Total xG
2.85
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente Rivadavia | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +1.39 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.80 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Rising form (0.5 vs 0.4 season average) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Leonel Bucca on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Luciano Gómez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 62% available) |
Key factors
- Class difference in the standings: League leaders Independiente Rivadavia (34 points) host bottom-placed Estudiantes (5 points)
- Tactical dominance: The hosts averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, while the visitors only averaged 2.0
- Mathematical model: The pipeline predicts a home win with a 69% probability
Risks
- Away defensive crisis: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concedes an average of 5.67 goals per away game
- Squad limitations: The visitors are operating with only 63% of their usual starting lineup strength
- Favorit's form dip: Independiente Rivadavia is on a negative trend, with goal production slowing down to 1.3 recently
All probabilities
Result
Independiente Rivadavia69%
Draw21%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto10%
Double chance
Independiente Rivadavia or draw90%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw31%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with F. Romero: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Independiente Rivadavia with Leonard Costa: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia 4-1-2-1-2 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-1-4-2
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 13 A. Osella
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 42 S. Studer
- 3 J. Elordi
- 11 G. Ríos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 10 M. Fernández
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 1 L. Bruera
- 2 G. Maffini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 13 F. Romero
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 19 N. Talpone
- 10 T. González
- 17 G. Alanís
- 16 Y. Moreno Murillo
- 27 J. Garro
Substitutes
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 36 E. Bonifacio
- 20 A. Riep
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 17 M. Salas
- 23 L. Díaz
- 40 F. Lo Celso
- 6 J. Antonini
- 8 S. Rosane
- 26 E. Forclaz
- 31 M. Valenti
- 43 A. Lastra
- 28 F. Cobos
- 45 R. Lozano
- 32 M. Bajamich
- 77 I. Hesar
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 18 J. Rivero
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