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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Atlético Tucumán - Sarmiento

08/08/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlético Tucumán
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Sarmiento
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ATSAR

Atlético Tucumán

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.26
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Leandro Díaz not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Sarmiento

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.61
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.25
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.10
Pablo Magnin on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sarmiento: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Leandro Díaz: 2 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Sarmiento: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Sarmiento with Manuel García: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Atlético Tucumán averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Atlético Tucumán is currently scoring more frequently (1.3) than their season average (1.1)
  • Sarmiento is currently scoring more frequently (1.4) than their season average (1.1)
Risk Factors
  • Leandro Díaz is missing, only 63% of the usual goal threat is available
  • Sarmiento concedes an average of 2.83 goals per away game
Overview

Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 14 points) host Sarmiento (11th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 8, 2026, 6:45 PM at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

The model calculates a home win probability of 52%

Form

Atlético Tucumán shows a stable form of DWDWD with 2 wins and 3 draws

Sarmiento is more inconsistent with WLLLW, recording 2 wins and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético Tucumán scores an average of 0.89 goals and concedes 1.05 goals per match

At home, the defense is solid, conceding only 0.67 goals per game

Sarmiento averages 1.0 goal scored but struggles away, conceding 2.83 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Atlético Tucumán won 2 times, Sarmiento won once, and there was 1 draw

The last match ended in a 1-2 victory for Sarmiento on February 8, 2026

Key Players

Franco Nicola leads the hosts' attack with 2 goals and 1 assist

Renzo Tesuri has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist from midfield

For the visitors, Junior Marabel is the biggest threat with 8 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Luis Ingolotti plays in goal for Atlético Tucumán and has recorded 8 clean sheets

Sarmiento fields Thyago Ayala, who earned a strong rating of 7.89 in his only appearance

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

In the last 5 matches at this venue, there has been an average of only 1.0 goals per game

The probability of both teams scoring is 42%

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