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Atlético Tucumán – Sarmiento1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Tucumán
1.46
Total xG
2.21
Sarmiento
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Tucumán | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.61 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.26 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.25 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Leandro Díaz not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Pablo Magnin on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Atlético Tucumán averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Atlético Tucumán is currently scoring more frequently (1.3) than their season average (1.1)
- Sarmiento is currently scoring more frequently (1.4) than their season average (1.1)
Risks
- Leandro Díaz is missing, only 63% of the usual goal threat is available
- Sarmiento concedes an average of 2.83 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Tucumán52%
Draw30%
Sarmiento18%
Double chance
Atlético Tucumán or draw82%
Sarmiento or draw48%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sarmiento: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Leandro Díaz: 2 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
- Sarmiento: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Sarmiento with Manuel García: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1 · Sarmiento 4-4-2
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 5 J. Fernández
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 8 S. Salle
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 19 J. Contrera
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 24 J. Herrera
Substitutes
- 17 J. Rodríguez
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 45 K. Ortíz
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 2 L. Paunero
- 14 P. Canelo
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 33 G. Díaz
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 35 F. Alaggia
- 1 I. Arboleda
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