🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Unión Santa Fe - Central Cordoba SdE

08/11/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Unión Santa Fe
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Central Cordoba SdE
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
USFCCS

Unión Santa Fe

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Brahian David Cuello not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Central Cordoba SdE

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.61
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.5 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.07
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Ezequiel Naya on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Central Cordoba SdE with Yuri Casermeiro: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Unión Santa Fe: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Unión Santa Fe: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Unión Santa Fe with Marcelo Estigarribia: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Strong home advantage: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of only 0.67 goals at home
  • Defensive struggles away: Central Cordoba SdE has conceded an average of 6.5 goals per away match
  • Mathematical favorability: The model calculates a 57% probability for a Unión Santa Fe home win
Risk Factors
  • Struggling offense: Unión Santa Fe scored only 1.2 goals per game recently compared to a season average of 1.6
  • Key player missing: Brahian David Cuello (3 goals) is unavailable for Unión Santa Fe
  • Historical H2H record: Central Cordoba SdE won 3 of the last 4 direct matches against Unión Santa Fe
Overview

Unión Santa Fe (8th place, 21 points) host Central Cordoba SdE (13th place, 16 points) at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 11, 2026, 1:15 AM

The home side enters the match as mathematical favorites

Form

Unión Santa Fe has a form of WLDLW, coming off a victory

Central Cordoba SdE shows a form of DLLLW, also winning their most recent match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Unión Santa Fe scores an average of 1.44 goals at home and concedes just 0.67

Central Cordoba SdE averages 0.5 goals scored and a massive 6.5 goals conceded in away games

Head-to-Head

Across 4 head-to-head matches, Unión won 1 time while Central Cordoba secured 3 victories

Their last duel on February 7, 2026, ended in a 0-1 away victory for Central Cordoba

Key Players

For the hosts, Cristian Tarragona (9 goals) and Julián Palacios (7 assists) are key factors

Lucas Menossi has added 2 goals so far this season

The visitors rely heavily on Michael Santos (5 goals, 2 assists) and Diego Barrera (3 goals)

Goalkeepers

Matías Mansilla guards the home goal and has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Alan Aguerre is between the posts for the visitors, boasting a strong average rating of 7.17

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Unión's solid home defensive record highlights their strong advantage on home turf

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.