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Unión Santa Fe – Central Cordoba SdE1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
1.70
Total xG
2.50
Central Cordoba SdE
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Central Cordoba SdE |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.61 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Brahian David Cuello not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Ezequiel Naya on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Strong home advantage: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of only 0.67 goals at home
- Defensive struggles away: Central Cordoba SdE has conceded an average of 6.5 goals per away match
- Mathematical favorability: The model calculates a 57% probability for a Unión Santa Fe home win
Risks
- Struggling offense: Unión Santa Fe scored only 1.2 goals per game recently compared to a season average of 1.6
- Key player missing: Brahian David Cuello (3 goals) is unavailable for Unión Santa Fe
- Historical H2H record: Central Cordoba SdE won 3 of the last 4 direct matches against Unión Santa Fe
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe57%
Draw27%
Central Cordoba SdE16%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw84%
Central Cordoba SdE or draw43%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
12%
2:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE with Yuri Casermeiro: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Unión Santa Fe: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Unión Santa Fe with Marcelo Estigarribia: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-2-3-1 · Central Cordoba SdE 4-2-3-1
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 35 L. Vargas
- 2 ?. Rodríguez González
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 12 B. Pittón
- 5 L. Menossi
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 20 J. Palacios
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 25 C. Tarragona
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 23 J. Cáceres Ovelar
- 22 M. Vera
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 28 L. Sequeira
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 7 D. Barrera
- 27 M. Santos Rosadilla
Substitutes
- 22 B. Cuello
- 46 S. Grella
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 29 S. Vera
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 18 L. Ayala
- 36 M. Aimar
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 33 A. Moyano
- 19 E. Naya
- 29 J. Flores
- 37 A. Daian Laprida
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 5 T. Cravero
- 21 F. Aguilar Mendoza
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