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Gimnasia La Plata – Barracas Central2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia La Plata
1.02
Total xG
2.01
Barracas Central
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia La Plata | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Marcelo Torres not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical setup: Gimnasia La Plata averaged 38.2% possession in recent matches, playing counter-oriented football
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 34% probability for a draw and a 34% chance for a home win
- Not nominated: Marcelo Torres is missing from Gimnasia La Plata's squad
Risks
- Stalling attack: Gimnasia La Plata's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goal compared to their 1.2 season average
- Gaps in forward line: Barracas Central's scoring has also stalled, averaging 1.0 goal in recent games
- Low goal expectation: The model calculates a probability for over 2.5 goals of only 33%
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia La Plata34%
Draw34%
Barracas Central32%
Double chance
Gimnasia La Plata or draw68%
Barracas Central or draw66%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
12%
2:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Barracas Central: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Barracas Central with Kevin Jappert: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Gimnasia La Plata 4-3-1-2 · Barracas Central 5-3-2
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 5 J. Miramon
- 16 A. Max
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 8 I. Fernández
- 29 A. Auzmendi
- 19 R. Colazo
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 13 R. Barrios
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 6 R. Insúa
- 8 T. Porra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 77 F. Bruera
Substitutes
- 17 L. Janson
- 42 S. Villarreal
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 18 M. Seoane
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 37 J. Langa
- 36 L. Lamella
- 43 M. Ojeda
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 18 M. Duarte
- 37 G. Campi
- 21 L. Gamba
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 33 G. Maroni
- 79 M. Puig
- 32 O. Tobio
- 2 N. Capraro
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 7 J. Barbieri
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