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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Gimnasia La Plata - Barracas Central

08/09/2026, 08:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Gimnasia La Plata
1.0
Total xG
2.0
Barracas Central
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

12%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
GLPBC

Gimnasia La Plata

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.03
Marcelo Torres not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Barracas Central

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
+0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.05
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Barracas Central: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Barracas Central with Kevin Jappert: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Gimnasia La Plata: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

34%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Tactical setup: Gimnasia La Plata averaged 38.2% possession in recent matches, playing counter-oriented football
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 34% probability for a draw and a 34% chance for a home win
  • Not nominated: Marcelo Torres is missing from Gimnasia La Plata's squad
Risk Factors
  • Stalling attack: Gimnasia La Plata's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goal compared to their 1.2 season average
  • Gaps in forward line: Barracas Central's scoring has also stalled, averaging 1.0 goal in recent games
  • Low goal expectation: The model calculates a probability for over 2.5 goals of only 33%
Overview

Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points) host Barracas Central (9th place, 21 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo on August 9, 2026, 8:45 PM

A tight encounter in the upper half of the table is expected

Form

Gimnasia La Plata comes in with form WLLWW

Barracas Central travels with form DLWWW

Both teams won their last two and three matches respectively

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per match

Barracas Central averages 0.95 goals scored and concedes 0.79 goals per game

At home, Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1.2 goals

Barracas Central averages 1.0 goal scored per away match

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches so far

Gimnasia La Plata recorded 2 wins, while Barracas Central has 1 win

The goal difference is 4 to 3 in favor of Gimnasia La Plata

The last meeting on February 9, 2026, ended 2-0 for Barracas Central

Key Players

Alexis Steimbach stands out for Gimnasia La Plata with 1 goal and 5 assists this season

AgustĂ­n Auzmendi has scored 3 goals so far

Nacho FernĂĄndez contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

For Barracas Central, TomĂĄs Porra excels with 1 goal and 4 assists

Rodrigo InsĂșa has contributed 3 goals this season

IvĂĄn Tapia recorded 1 goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Nelson InsfrĂĄn plays in goal for Gimnasia La Plata, recording 7 clean sheets

Marcelo Miño is in goal for Barracas Central and also has 7 clean sheets

Both keepers provide a reliable defensive foundation

Influences

Gimnasia La Plata plays at home at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo on natural grass

The stadium history shows an average of 2.4 goals per match

The BTTS rate at this venue is just 20%

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