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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Estudiantes - Gimnasia La Plata

08/15/2026, 07:45 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Estudiantes
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Gimnasia La Plata
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
ESTGLP

Estudiantes

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.40
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.14
Guido Carrillo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Gimnasia La Plata

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Estudiantes with Ramiro Funes Mori: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Estudiantes' stagnant goal production (recently averaging 0.8 goals vs 1.3 season average) faces the in-form visitors with three consecutive wins
  • Gimnasia La Plata have played dynamically in recent matches, averaging 4.8 shots on target with 42% average possession
  • Estudiantes' strong defense (season average of 0.62 goals conceded) underpins the mathematical home win probability of 42%
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes are in a slump with four losses from their last five matches
  • Gimnasia La Plata concede an average of 1.4 goals per game in away matches
  • The absence of NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto (3 goals, 3 assists) reduces the starting XI strength of the visitors to 85%
Overview

Estudiantes host Gimnasia La Plata at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 15, 2026, 8:45 PM

Estudiantes sit in 1st place with 31 points

Gimnasia La Plata travel in 6th place with 26 points

An important clash in the upper part of the table

Form

Estudiantes enter with form LLWLL

The home team comes off two consecutive losses

Gimnasia La Plata arrive with form LLWWW

The visitors have celebrated three consecutive wins

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Estudiantes average 1.05 goals scored and 0.62 goals conceded this season

The home defense is strong with 10 clean sheets overall

Gimnasia La Plata average 1.18 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per match

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.4 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Historically, Estudiantes dominate with 3 wins from the last 5 matches

Gimnasia La Plata have not won any of the last 5 meetings

The goal difference stands at 8:2 in favor of the hosts

The last head-to-head match on February 15, 2026 ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Tiago Palacios has 3 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.07

Adolfo Gaich scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist this season

TomĂĄs Palacios stands out defensively with an average rating of 7.18

Alexis Steimbach is a key playmaker with 6 assists and 1 goal

AgustĂ­n Auzmendi has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists so far

Nacho FernĂĄndez holds an average rating of 6.98 with 2 goals scored

Goalkeepers

Fernando Muslera guards the net for Estudiantes, recording 10 clean sheets

Nelson InsfrĂĄn plays in goal for Gimnasia La Plata, securing 8 clean sheets so far

Both goalkeepers are statistically solid anchors for their respective teams

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

In the 3 games played at this venue, an average of 3.33 goals were scored per match

Both teams scored in 0% of the matches at this venue (0 out of 3 BTTS)

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