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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Argentinos Juniors

08/16/2026, 09:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Argentinos Juniors
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
RPAJ

River Plate

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.26
Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+0.13
Facundo Colidio not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Marcos Acuña not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Argentinos Juniors

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.04
Facundo Jainikoski on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentinos Juniors: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    River Plate with AnĂ­bal Moreno: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    River Plate: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Argentinos Juniors with GastĂłn VerĂłn: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

32%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Extreme form contrast: River Plate lost its last 5 league matches (LLLLL) while Argentinos Juniors remains unbeaten in 5 games (DWWWW)
  • Tactical advantage: Argentinos Juniors averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches, showing high offensive power
  • Efficiency gap: The visitors are currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.5), whereas River Plate's goal production has stalled lately (0.4)
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: Facundo Colidio, TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn, and Marcos Acuña are missing for the hosts, leaving only 62% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
  • Defensive vulnerability away: Argentinos Juniors concedes an average of 1.38 goals in away matches
  • Historical low-scoring venue: Matches played at Estadio MĂąs Monumental have recently averaged only 1.4 goals per game
Overview

River Plate hosts Argentinos Juniors at Estadio MĂąs Monumental

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 16, 2026, 10:00 PM

Both teams are level on 29 points in 2nd and 3rd place in the standings

A crucial clash in the battle for the top positions

Form

River Plate is in a slump with five consecutive defeats (Form: LLLLL, L = Loss)

Argentinos Juniors is in excellent shape with four wins and one draw (Form: DWWWW, W = Win, D = Draw)

The visitors remain undefeated in their last five matches

Statistics

River Plate scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 0.88 per match

Argentinos Juniors boasts a strong defense, conceding just 0.74 goals per game

The visitors average 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded in away games

Matches at Estadio MĂąs Monumental averaged only 1.4 total goals

Head-to-Head

Argentinos Juniors won the last two head-to-head matches by 1-0

River Plate failed to score in both of these meetings

The away team has held the upper hand in recent encounters

Key Players

Gonzalo Montiel scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist this season with a 7.16 rating

Lucas MartĂ­nez Quarta contributed 2 goals with a 7.02 rating

JoaquĂ­n Freitas recorded 1 goal and 2 assists with a 6.82 rating

TomĂĄs Molina registered 5 goals and 3 assists with a 6.97 rating

Hernån López Muñoz scored 4 goals and made 3 assists with a 6.89 rating

Alan Lescano scored 4 goals this season with a 7.07 rating

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernåndez registered 12 clean sheets so far

Both goalkeepers present solid statistical records

Influences

Estadio MĂąs Monumental features a natural grass surface

None of the previous 5 venue matches saw both teams score

Home advantage for River Plate is supported by a solid defensive record of 0.88 conceded goals per home game

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